Willy Adames shows a pronounced home underperformance in total bases, going under in 63% of games with a devastating -0.6 differential from typical lines. The current five-game under streak reinforces a pattern of consistent home disappointment. This represents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Willy Adames's home total bases struggles reveal a player who consistently fails to meet market expectations at American Family Field. Averaging just 1.63 total bases against lines typically set around 2.24, Adames shows a significant gap between perception and reality in Milwaukee. The 63% under rate isn't marginal—it's systematic underperformance that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his home park factors or there are underlying mechanical issues affecting his power production at home. The current five-game under streak matches his season-long pattern, indicating this isn't random variance but persistent struggle. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—even when Adames connects, he's generating fewer extra-base hits than expected. The -29.1% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that continues to overvalue his home production. While regression is always possible, the sample size of 35 games provides sufficient data to suggest this reflects genuine home park challenges rather than small-sample noise. The lack of recent hot streaks (longest over streak just four games) reinforces that Adames hasn't found solutions to his home struggles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Adames's home total bases props offer consistent value on the under, with his 1.63 average creating meaningful separation from typical market lines. The five-game under streak aligns with season-long patterns rather than representing an anomaly. Primary risk involves potential market adjustment lowering future lines, but current pricing appears to ignore his documented home struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willy Adames's Total Bases prop record home games?
Willy Adames has gone 13-22 on total bases overs in home games, hitting the under in 63% of contests. His average of 1.63 total bases consistently falls short of market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willy Adames Total Bases home games?
Bet the under on Adames's home total bases props. His 1.63 average creates significant value gaps, and the 20% ROI on unders reflects consistent market mispricing of his home struggles.
What's Willy Adames's average Total Bases home games?
Adames averages 1.63 total bases in home games, running 0.6 bases below typical market lines around 2.24. This substantial differential creates recurring under opportunities throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Adames's total bases unders when lines exceed 2.0 at home, particularly during his current cold streak. Avoid when books adjust lines below 1.5, which eliminates the value edge.