Willy Adames has been ice-cold at the plate with home runs, going under in 7 of his last 10 games for a brutal 30% over rate. His 0.3 average sits well below the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.2 differential that screams value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Willy Adames is experiencing a pronounced power drought that extends beyond normal variance. His 0.3 home run average over the last 10 games represents a significant departure from his season-long production, suggesting either mechanical issues or unfavorable matchup sequencing. The 7-game under streak indicates a player struggling to elevate the ball consistently, likely due to timing issues or pressing at the plate. This type of extended cold streak in power numbers often persists longer than other statistical categories because home run hitting requires precise timing and launch angle optimization. The -42.7% ROI on overs demonstrates how the market has been slow to adjust to Adames's current form, creating exploitable value on unders. Late-season fatigue could be a contributing factor, as shortstops often see their power numbers decline due to accumulated wear. The complete absence of multi-homer games during this stretch further reinforces the mechanical nature of his struggles. While regression toward his season mean is inevitable, power slumps can extend for weeks when a hitter loses his timing mechanism.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Adames's current 0.3 average creates clear value against standard 0.5 lines, and his 7-game under streak suggests persistent mechanical issues rather than random variance. Target this prop when he faces quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly venues. The main risk is immediate regression if he rediscovers his timing, but the trend appears sustainable short-term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willy Adames's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Willy Adames has gone 3-7-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaging 0.3 home runs per game, well below the typical 0.5 line most books offer.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willy Adames Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Willy Adames home runs. His 7-game under streak and 0.3 average create clear value against 0.5 lines. The trend appears mechanical rather than random, making it sustainable short-term.
What's Willy Adames's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Willy Adames is averaging 0.3 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.2 below the standard 0.5 line. This 40% gap represents significant mathematical value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Adames home run unders when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His current mechanical struggles make him vulnerable against above-average arms and in challenging hitting environments.