Willy Adames has been a consistent under performer on his hits prop, going just 3-7 over the last 10 games with a brutal 30% over rate. His 0.7 hits per game average sits nearly a full hit below the typical 1.6 line, creating clear value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture for Willy Adames's recent hitting performance. His 0.7 hits per game over this 10-game stretch represents a massive 56.3% shortfall from the standard 1.6 hits line, suggesting either poor form or inflated market expectations. The 42.7% negative ROI on overs tells the story of a player consistently disappointing bettors who backed his hitting ability. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the sustained nature of the struggle - Adames endured a brutal 5-game under streak during this period, indicating this wasn't just variance but a genuine cold spell. The current single-game under streak suggests he hasn't broken out of this pattern. While regression toward career norms is always possible, the severity of this downturn (-0.9 differential) indicates either mechanical issues at the plate or particularly challenging matchups. The 33.6% positive ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as books appear slow to adjust lines downward despite mounting evidence. For a shortstop whose offensive value typically comes from power rather than contact rate, extended hitting droughts aren't uncommon, especially late in seasons when fatigue accumulates.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Willy Adames's 70% under rate over his last 10 games represents one of the clearest trends in recent prop betting. The nearly full-hit differential between his performance and typical lines suggests books haven't adequately adjusted to his current form. Target this when lines remain at 1.5 hits or higher, as his 0.7 average provides substantial cushion even accounting for potential positive regression.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willy Adames's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Willy Adames has gone 3-7 on his hits prop over the last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance that has created clear betting value on the under side of his hits props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willy Adames Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Willy Adames hits props. His 70% under rate and 0.7 hits per game average over the last 10 games provides substantial value, especially when lines remain at 1.5 hits or higher in current market conditions.
What's Willy Adames's average Hits last 10 games?
Willy Adames is averaging just 0.7 hits per game over his last 10 contests, nearly a full hit below the typical 1.6 line. This massive 0.9 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Willy Adames hits unders when books set lines at 1.5 or higher, particularly in day games after night games or against quality starting pitching. His current form suggests these elevated lines provide consistent value opportunities.