Willson Contreras has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, going under in 9 of 10 contests (10.0% over rate) while averaging just 1.2 total bases against a typical 3.0 line. This represents an extreme -1.8 differential that screams systematic underperformance.
Expert Analysis
Willson Contreras's total bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of factors that have transformed the Cardinals catcher from a reliable offensive contributor into a prop bettor's nightmare. His 1.2 average against a 3.0 line represents a catastrophic 40% performance rate, suggesting either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or simple regression from earlier season highs. The 8-game under streak within this sample indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained downturn in offensive production. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance - Contreras isn't alternating good and bad games, he's systematically failing to reach modest expectations. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors who kept expecting a bounce-back that never materialized. However, this level of underperformance rarely sustains indefinitely, especially for a player of Contreras's caliber. The question becomes whether this represents a new baseline due to injury or fatigue, or if we're witnessing an extreme negative variance that's due for correction. Given the Cardinals' late-season positioning and potential rest considerations, the former seems more likely than a dramatic offensive renaissance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. While Contreras's 90% under rate over 10 games suggests potential regression risk, the consistency of underperformance indicates systemic issues rather than bad luck. Target unders when facing quality pitching or in day games where fatigue factors compound. Main risk is a sudden offensive explosion that breaks this extended cold streak, but the Cardinals' season context suggests continued conservative offensive output.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willson Contreras's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Willson Contreras has gone 1-9-0 over/under on his Total Bases props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 10.0% of the time. He's averaging only 1.2 total bases per game during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willson Contreras Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Willson Contreras Total Bases props. His 90% under rate over 10 games, combined with averaging 1.2 total bases against typical 3.0 lines, creates a strong systematic edge for under bettors.
What's Willson Contreras's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Willson Contreras is averaging just 1.2 total bases over his last 10 games, creating a massive -1.8 differential against the typical 3.0 line. This represents a 40% performance rate against expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Contreras Total Bases unders against quality pitching and in day games where catcher fatigue is most pronounced. Avoid betting when he faces weak pitching or in potential breakout spots after extended rest.