Willson Contreras has been a consistent under performer in Total Bases at home, hitting just 29.7% overs with an average of 1.32 against a 1.91 line. Currently riding a nine-game under streak, this represents one of the strongest home fade opportunities in baseball.
Expert Analysis
Willson Contreras has transformed into a reliable under play for Total Bases in St. Louis home games, and the underlying factors suggest this isn't random variance. The Cardinals catcher is averaging 1.32 total bases per home game against lines typically set around 1.91, creating a massive -0.6 differential that screams market inefficiency. The 29.7% over rate across 37 games represents a substantial sample size that's difficult to dismiss as noise. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the current nine-game under streak, which indicates the pattern has only strengthened recently. Home ballpark factors likely play a significant role here, as Busch Stadium's dimensions and conditions may not favor Contreras's power profile. The Cardinals' offensive approach at home, combined with potential lineup protection issues, appears to consistently limit Contreras's extra-base opportunities. The -43.2% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't properly adjusted to this reality. While regression is always possible, the consistency of this pattern across different months and situations suggests structural factors rather than temporary slumps are driving these results.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 29.7% over rate and -0.6 differential create a clear mathematical edge, while the nine-game under streak shows the pattern remains strong. Target this when Contreras faces quality pitching or in day games where his power typically diminishes. The main risk is natural regression to his career norms, but the sample size and consistency make this a viable fade opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willson Contreras's Total Bases prop record home games?
Willson Contreras has gone 11-26 on Total Bases overs in home games, hitting just 29.7% with a brutal -43.2% ROI for over bettors across 37 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willson Contreras Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Willson Contreras Total Bases at home. The 70.3% under rate and +34.1% ROI create a clear mathematical edge that the market hasn't corrected.
What's Willson Contreras's average Total Bases home games?
Willson Contreras averages 1.32 total bases in home games compared to typical lines around 1.91, creating a significant -0.6 differential that favors under bettors consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Contreras Total Bases unders in home day games against quality pitching. His current nine-game under streak suggests the optimal time is now while the pattern remains strong.