Willson Contreras's home run prop at home presents one of the sharpest under edges in baseball, with just 5 overs in 38 games (13.2% hit rate) for a devastating -74.9% ROI on overs. Currently riding a 9-game under streak with his 0.16 home average sitting 68% below the typical 0.5 line, this trend screams systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
The Contreras home run under at Busch Stadium represents a textbook case of market inefficiency driven by reputation lag. His 0.16 home run rate at home translates to roughly one homer every six games, yet books consistently price him around 0.5, suggesting they expect production every other game. This 68% gap between actual performance and implied probability creates massive value on unders. The 15-game under streak within this sample reveals how dramatically his power has diminished in St. Louis home conditions, whether due to Busch Stadium's pitcher-friendly dimensions, approach changes, or physical decline. What makes this trend particularly reliable is its consistency—Contreras has failed to reach even modest power expectations with stunning regularity, not just missing by small margins but often going multiple games without extra-base hits. The 65.8% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a fundamental disconnect between perception and reality. While regression toward league norms is always possible, the sample size of 38 games provides substantial confidence that this represents his true talent level at home rather than extended bad luck.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Willson Contreras's home run production at Busch Stadium has been catastrophically overvalued by oddsmakers, creating a 68% edge on unders that has delivered consistent profits. The ideal conditions are any home game where his line sits at 0.5 or higher, which should be standard given his reputation. The primary risk is a sudden power surge or park adjustment, but 38 games of data suggests this is his new baseline rather than a slump.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willson Contreras's Home Runs prop record home games?
Willson Contreras has gone over his home run prop just 5 times in 38 home games (13.2% rate) since May 2023, with 33 unders producing a 65.8% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willson Contreras Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Willson Contreras home run props at home games with high confidence. His 0.16 average sits 68% below typical 0.5 lines, creating massive value on unders.
What's Willson Contreras's average Home Runs home games?
Willson Contreras averages 0.16 home runs per home game, significantly below the standard 0.5 line. This 68% gap represents one of the largest edges in player props.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Contreras home run unders whenever he's playing at Busch Stadium with a line of 0.5 or higher. The edge is strongest during day games and series openers.