Willson Contreras has been a disaster for home run overs when the Cardinals are favored, hitting just 27.3% (3-8) with a brutal -47.9% ROI. His 0.36 average falls significantly short of the typical 0.5 line, creating a clear systematic edge on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture for Willson Contreras home run props in favorable game scripts. When St. Louis enters as favorites, Contreras averages just 0.36 home runs against lines typically set at 0.5, creating a meaningful 0.14 gap that translates to real betting value. This underperformance isn't marginal—it's systematic and severe. The -47.9% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that consistently overvalues Contreras's power output in these spots. Several factors likely drive this trend. As favorites, the Cardinals often face weaker pitching that should theoretically boost home run rates, yet Contreras fails to capitalize. This suggests either pressing in favorable spots or facing strategic adjustments from opposing pitchers who attack the zone differently when protecting leads. The 8-game under streak within this sample reinforces the persistence of this pattern. While any player can break out for multiple home runs, Contreras has shown remarkable consistency in disappointing power expectations when his team is expected to win. The sample size of 11 games provides meaningful data without being so large that market corrections have eliminated the edge. Most concerning for over bettors is the complete lack of volatility—even when Contreras does connect, he's rarely going deep multiple times in these favorable game environments.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Willson Contreras home run unders as favorites represent one of the clearest systematic edges in player props. The 0.14 average shortfall against standard lines, combined with the 72.7% under rate, creates compelling value that the market hasn't corrected. Target these spots aggressively when St. Louis opens as road favorites against struggling pitching staffs, where the line inflation is most pronounced.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willson Contreras's Home Runs prop record as favorite?
Willson Contreras is 3-8 on home run overs when the Cardinals are favored, hitting just 27.3% with a devastating -47.9% ROI that makes this one of the worst over bets in baseball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willson Contreras Home Runs as favorite?
Bet the under aggressively. Contreras averages just 0.36 home runs as favorites against 0.5 lines, creating a systematic edge that has produced +38.8% ROI and 72.7% under rate.
What's Willson Contreras's average Home Runs as favorite?
Willson Contreras averages 0.36 home runs when St. Louis is favored, falling 0.14 short of the typical 0.5 line. This significant gap creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Contreras home run unders when St. Louis opens as road favorites against weaker pitching staffs, where line inflation is most pronounced and the edge is strongest.