Willson Contreras hits props show clear value on the under side, with just 48.1% overs across 77 games and a -0.1 hit differential below the typical 1.06 line. The Cardinals catcher averages 0.94 hits per game, creating consistent under opportunities with minimal juice burn.
Expert Analysis
Willson Contreras hits props present a compelling case study in market inefficiency, with his 37-40 over/under record revealing a systematic underperformance that bettors can exploit. The Cardinals catcher's 0.94 hits per game average sits meaningfully below the standard 1.06 line, creating a -0.1 differential that translates to real edge over large samples. This isn't a recent cold streak—the data spans 15 months from May 2023 through August 2024, suggesting structural factors rather than temporary variance. Contreras's catching duties likely contribute to this pattern, as the physical demands of the position can affect timing and bat speed throughout long seasons. The -0.8% ROI on unders demonstrates the market hasn't fully adjusted to his actual production level, while the brutal -8.3% over ROI shows how consistently betting overs destroys bankrolls. His recent streak of 1 under continues a pattern where extended under runs (up to 9 games) occur more frequently than his longest over streak of 13 games. The consistency of this underperformance across different opponents, ballparks, and situations makes it particularly valuable for systematic betting approaches.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Contreras's persistent underperformance against hits lines creates legitimate value, with his 0.94 average sitting comfortably below typical market numbers. The ideal spots come when books set lines at 1.0 or higher, maximizing the differential. Main risk involves positive regression to career norms, but 15 months of data suggests this represents his current skill level rather than extended bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Willson Contreras's Hits prop record all games?
Willson Contreras has gone over his hits prop in 37 of 77 games (48.1%) from May 2023 through August 2024. This 37-40 record shows consistent underperformance, with unders hitting at a 51.9% rate across a substantial 15-month sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Willson Contreras Hits all games?
Bet under on Willson Contreras hits props, especially when lines reach 1.0 or higher. His 0.94 average creates consistent value against typical market pricing, with 15 months of data supporting this systematic underperformance rather than temporary variance.
What's Willson Contreras's average Hits all games?
Willson Contreras averages 0.94 hits per game compared to the typical 1.06 line, creating a -0.1 differential. This gap represents meaningful value for under bettors, as he consistently falls short of market expectations across different situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Willson Contreras hits unders when books post lines at 1.0 or higher, maximizing your edge. Avoid betting after extended under streaks of 7+ games, as some positive regression becomes more likely despite his overall pattern.