William Contreras presents one of the most compelling home run under trends in baseball, connecting on just 9 of 71 attempts (12.7% over rate) with a devastating -0.4 differential versus his typical 0.5 line. The Brewers catcher is currently riding a 10-game under streak and offers exceptional under value.
Expert Analysis
Contreras's home run struggles stem from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and his actual power output. Averaging just 0.14 homers per game against a standard 0.5 line creates a massive 0.36 gap that reflects overvaluation of his offensive ceiling. The 12.7% over rate isn't just poor—it's historically bad for a regular starter, suggesting either a significant power decline or persistent market mispricing. His longest over streak maxed at just one game while recording a staggering 22-game under run, indicating this isn't variance but a systematic pattern. The +66.7% under ROI demonstrates sharp money has already identified this edge, yet books continue setting inflated lines. Contreras's profile as a contact-first catcher with gap power rather than true home run pop explains the persistence. His swing mechanics and approach favor doubles over homers, making the 0.5 threshold consistently too high. The 10-game current under streak shows no signs of regression, as his underlying metrics haven't shifted toward more power production. This trend appears sustainable given his role, park factors, and hitting approach that prioritizes average over slugging.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Contreras's home run props represent exceptional under value with a proven 71-game sample showing systematic overvaluation. The -0.4 differential and 87.3% under rate create a mathematical edge that outweighs typical regression concerns. Target this under in all standard situations, especially when the line sits at 0.5. Main risk is a sudden power surge, but his contact-oriented approach makes dramatic improvement unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is William Contreras's Home Runs prop record all games?
William Contreras has gone under his home runs prop in 62 of 71 games (87.3% under rate) with only 9 overs. His record shows a dominant under trend with exceptional consistency across the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on William Contreras Home Runs all games?
Bet under on William Contreras home runs props with high confidence. The 87.3% under rate and -0.4 differential create substantial value, supported by his contact-oriented hitting approach that rarely produces home run power.
What's William Contreras's average Home Runs all games?
William Contreras averages 0.14 home runs per game compared to his typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This gap represents one of the largest mismatches between production and market expectations in baseball.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet William Contreras home runs under consistently when the line is set at 0.5. His contact-first approach and proven 71-game sample make this edge reliable across all standard game situations and matchups.