William Contreras has been a hits prop disaster over his last 10 games, going just 1-9 against the over with a brutal 0.4 hits per game average against a 1.6 line. This represents an 80.9% ROI loss on overs and a massive 71.8% profit on unders.
Expert Analysis
Contreras is experiencing one of the most severe hitting droughts we've tracked, averaging just 0.4 hits per game while books consistently set his line at 1.6 hits. This 1.2-hit differential represents a market inefficiency that's been exploited ruthlessly by under bettors. The 9-game under streak suggests either a mechanical issue, injury concern, or simply catastrophic variance that hasn't corrected. What's particularly striking is the consistency of this failure - Contreras isn't alternating between good and bad games, he's been systematically unable to reach even modest hit totals. The 10% over rate indicates books haven't adequately adjusted to his current form, continuing to price him based on season-long or career metrics rather than recent performance. This type of extended slump often persists longer than expected because catchers face unique physical demands that can compound timing issues. However, regression remains a constant threat - professional hitters of Contreras's caliber don't typically sustain sub-0.5 hit averages indefinitely. The key question becomes whether this represents a legitimate skill decline or temporary variance that's due for correction.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 9-game under streak and 1.2-hit differential create compelling value, but regression risk prevents high conviction. Target games where Contreras faces quality pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly conditions to maximize edge. The main risk is inevitable positive regression - even struggling hitters eventually connect. However, the market's slow adjustment suggests continued under value until performance meaningfully improves.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is William Contreras's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Contreras has gone 1-9 on hits props over his last 10 games, hitting just 10% of overs. Under bettors have profited 71.8% ROI while over bettors lost 80.9%, making this one of the most lopsided recent trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on William Contreras Hits last 10 games?
Lean under on Contreras hits props. The 9-game under streak and 0.4 hits per game average create strong value against the 1.6 line, though regression risk prevents maximum confidence betting.
What's William Contreras's average Hits last 10 games?
Contreras is averaging just 0.4 hits per game over his last 10 contests, a massive 1.2 hits below the typical 1.6 line. This differential represents one of the largest gaps we've tracked recently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Contreras under bets when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Avoid betting after any multi-hit games as books may temporarily adjust lines and regression becomes more likely.