Will Smith's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over the last 10 games with a brutal -1.6 average differential against the 3.0 line. The under trend shows remarkable persistence with a 52.7% ROI, making this a strong fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Smith's total bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of declining contact quality and reduced power output. His 1.4 average against a 3.0 line represents a massive 53% shortfall, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his recent struggles. The data reveals a player fighting mechanical issues that manifest in weak contact and diminished extra-base hit frequency. What makes this trend particularly reliable is its consistency—Smith has managed just two overs in 10 games, with his longest under streak reaching five games. The 20% over rate isn't just bad luck; it reflects fundamental changes in his approach and results. His recent form shows a hitter who's lost the barrel consistency needed to regularly exceed 2.5-3.0 total bases. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a prop that's been consistently overvalued, while under bettors have capitalized on what appears to be a genuine skill regression rather than temporary variance. This isn't a slump that screams positive regression—it's a pattern that suggests deeper issues with Smith's offensive production that may persist.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Smith's 1.4 average against typical 3.0 lines creates significant value on the under, supported by a 52.7% ROI and consistent failure to reach modest totals. The trend shows persistence rather than variance, making unders attractive when lines remain inflated. Main risk is potential lineup changes or favorable matchups that could spark temporary improvement, but the underlying contact issues suggest continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Smith's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Smith has gone over his total bases prop in just 2 of his last 10 games (20%), averaging only 1.4 total bases against typical 3.0 lines for a -1.6 differential and -61.8% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Smith Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under. Smith's 1.4 average against 3.0 lines creates significant value, with under bets producing a 52.7% ROI. The trend shows persistence rather than variance, making unders the clear play.
What's Will Smith's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Smith has averaged just 1.4 total bases over his last 10 games, falling 1.6 bases short of typical 3.0 lines. This 53% shortfall represents a massive gap between performance and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Smith's total bases unders when lines remain at 2.5 or higher, especially in neutral or pitcher-friendly matchups. Avoid when he faces struggling pitching or in hitter-friendly conditions that might spark temporary improvement.