Will Smith's away total bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 28.2% overs hitting across 39 games. His 1.79 average sits 0.7 bases below typical lines, generating +37.1% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under Smith's total bases in road contests.
Expert Analysis
Smith's road struggles create a systematic edge that books haven't fully adjusted for. His 1.79 total bases average away from Dodger Stadium reflects a player who simply doesn't elevate his game on the road like elite hitters do. The 0.7 base differential between his performance and typical lines suggests oddsmakers are pricing him closer to his overall numbers rather than his road-specific output. This 28.2% over rate isn't marginal variance—it's a persistent pattern across a full season sample. The current two-game under streak, following his season-long eight-game under run, indicates this isn't a hot/cold streaky situation but rather consistent underperformance. Road environments typically suppress offensive numbers due to unfamiliar backdrops, different mound heights, and hostile crowds, factors that appear to significantly impact Smith more than the average player. The +37.1% under ROI demonstrates this edge has been profitable and sustainable. Without meaningful splits data suggesting specific matchups where he exceeds expectations, the trend appears robust across various pitching matchups and ballpark factors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Smith's road total bases props offer exceptional value with nearly three-quarters of his away games staying under the posted number. The 0.7 base gap between his 1.79 average and typical lines creates consistent profit opportunities. Target this play in any road venue, particularly when lines sit at 2.5 bases or higher. Main risk is a sudden offensive breakthrough, but the season-long sample suggests sustainable underperformance away from home.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Smith's Total Bases prop record away games?
Smith's total bases prop record in away games is 11-28-0, meaning the over has hit just 28.2% of the time across 39 road contests. Under bettors have been profitable with a +37.1% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Smith Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Smith's total bases in away games. His 1.79 road average sits 0.7 bases below typical lines, creating consistent value. The 28.2% over rate and +37.1% under ROI make this a high-confidence play.
What's Will Smith's average Total Bases away games?
Smith averages 1.79 total bases in away games compared to his typical line around 2.5 bases. This 0.7 base differential has created profitable under opportunities throughout the 2024 season with remarkable consistency.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Smith's total bases unders in any away game, especially when lines are set at 2.5 or higher. Road venues consistently suppress his offensive output regardless of opposing pitcher or ballpark dimensions.