Will Smith's away home run props present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 19.5% of overs across 41 road games. With an average of 0.22 homers versus typical 0.5 lines, Smith's road power struggles create a profitable fade situation with +53.7% under ROI.
Expert Analysis
Will Smith's road power outage stems from fundamental environmental and psychological factors that create sustainable betting value. The Dodgers catcher averages just 0.22 home runs in away games, creating a massive -0.4 differential against standard 0.5 lines. This isn't random variance—it reflects the reality that Smith loses his Dodger Stadium dimensions advantage on the road, where he faces unfamiliar pitcher backgrounds, different wind patterns, and varying altitude effects. Smith's swing plane and approach appear optimized for his home ballpark, where he can turn mistake pitches into homers more consistently. The 19.5% over rate across 41 games represents a large enough sample to trust, especially given the logical underlying factors. His current two-game under streak and previous nine-game under streak demonstrate how road environments consistently suppress his power output. The -62.8% over ROI tells the story clearly—betting Smith to homer on the road has been a consistent loser. Most concerning for over bettors is that this trend shows no signs of regression, as the environmental factors creating it remain constant. Smith's road power struggles aren't a slump to bet against, but a predictable pattern to exploit.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Smith's road power deficiency creates one of the most reliable under plays in baseball, backed by a 19.5% over rate and +53.7% under ROI. Target this bet when Smith faces quality road pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. The main risk is a random hot streak, but the underlying factors suggest continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Smith's Home Runs prop record away games?
Smith's home run props in away games show an 8-33-0 over/under record, hitting just 19.5% of overs across 41 road contests with a devastating -62.8% over ROI and profitable +53.7% under ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Smith Home Runs away games?
Bet the under on Smith's home run props in away games. His 19.5% over rate and 0.22 road average create consistent value against 0.5 lines, making this a high-confidence under play.
What's Will Smith's average Home Runs away games?
Smith averages 0.22 home runs in away games, creating a significant -0.4 differential against typical 0.5 lines. This massive gap between performance and market expectation drives the profitable under opportunity.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Smith's home run unders when he plays on the road, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality starting pitching. Avoid when he faces weak road pitching in hitter-friendly environments.