Will Smith's home run props present one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 83.6% of games with a 12-61-0 record. His 0.21 home runs per game average sits 62% below typical lines, creating consistent under value with a 59.5% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Will Smith's home run production reveals a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and reality. His 0.21 home runs per game average represents a massive 0.34 gap below the standard 0.55 line, indicating books consistently overvalue his power output. This isn't a temporary slump but a sustained pattern across 73 games spanning over a year. Smith's role as a contact-oriented catcher limits his swing-for-the-fences opportunities, while his position demands prioritize getting on base over launching balls. The 11-game under streak demonstrates how rarely Smith connects for home runs, even during hot offensive periods. His 16.4% over rate is remarkably low for any regular starter, suggesting either chronic overvaluation by oddsmakers or a genuine power ceiling. The consistency is striking—Smith rarely clusters home runs, with his longest over streak just two games. This pattern persists regardless of opponent quality or ballpark factors, indicating the trend stems from his individual approach rather than external variables. The -68.6% over ROI warns against chasing the occasional power surge, while the under's 59.5% return reflects sustainable edge recognition.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Will Smith's home run props offer exceptional under value with an 83.6% hit rate and 59.5% ROI. His contact-first approach and catcher workload create a reliable power ceiling that books consistently misprice. Target any line at 0.5 or higher, especially in day games after night games when fatigue compounds his already limited power upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Smith's Home Runs prop record all games?
Will Smith's home run prop record stands at 12-61-0 over/under across 73 games, hitting the under in 83.6% of contests. This represents one of the most lopsided trends for any regular starter in baseball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Smith Home Runs all games?
Bet the under on Will Smith's home run props with high confidence. His 83.6% under rate and 59.5% ROI create exceptional value, while his contact-first approach provides a reliable power ceiling that books consistently misprice.
What's Will Smith's average Home Runs all games?
Will Smith averages 0.21 home runs per game, sitting 0.34 below the typical 0.55 line. This 62% deficit represents a massive gap between his actual production and market expectations, creating consistent under opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Smith home run unders on any line at 0.5 or higher, especially in day games after night games when catcher fatigue compounds his limited power. His consistent approach makes timing less critical than line value.