Will Benson's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just once in his last 10 games for a dismal 10.0% over rate. Averaging only 1.4 total bases against a 3.8 line creates a massive -2.4 differential that's generated 71.8% ROI on unders. This trend screams systematic underperformance.
Expert Analysis
Will Benson's total bases collapse represents one of the most exploitable trends in current MLB props. His 1.4 average against a 3.8 line reveals a stunning disconnect between market expectations and reality. The 90% under rate isn't just variance — it's systematic failure to reach inflated lines. Benson's current five-game under streak demonstrates consistent inability to generate extra-base hits or multiple singles. The -2.4 differential per game compounds into massive value for under bettors, as books appear slow to adjust to his offensive struggles. This level of underperformance typically stems from mechanical issues, poor pitch recognition, or unfavorable matchups that persist until addressed. The 71.8% ROI on unders indicates the market hasn't properly recalibrated expectations. However, regression risk exists — no player sustains 90% under rates indefinitely. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data for pattern recognition while remaining small enough that books may not have fully adjusted. Benson's power potential creates occasional over risk, but his current form suggests continued struggles reaching inflated total bases lines until fundamental changes occur.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Benson's systematic underperformance against inflated lines creates clear value, but the extreme nature of this trend raises regression concerns. Target unders when lines remain at 3.5+ total bases, especially against quality pitching where his struggles intensify. The primary risk is sudden offensive breakthrough, but his consistent inability to generate extra bases supports continued under betting until market adjustment occurs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Benson's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Will Benson has gone over his total bases prop just once in his last 10 games, posting a 1-9-0 record for a 10.0% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in current MLB props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Benson Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Will Benson's total bases props. His 90% under rate and -2.4 average differential create clear value, though regression risk exists. Target unders when lines stay elevated at 3.5+ total bases.
What's Will Benson's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Will Benson has averaged just 1.4 total bases over his last 10 games against a typical line of 3.8, creating a massive -2.4 differential that consistently favors under bettors in this sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when Benson's total bases line remains at 3.5 or higher, particularly against quality starting pitching. His struggles against better arms amplify the value in under bets during these matchups.