Will Benson's home run props in away games present a clear under opportunity with just 18.2% overs across 33 games. The Reds outfielder averages 0.18 home runs per away game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.3 differential. This is a high-conviction under play with exceptional historical value.
Expert Analysis
Will Benson's road power struggles represent one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props. Across 33 away games spanning over a year, Benson has cleared 0.5 home runs just six times while failing 27 times, producing a staggering 81.8% under rate. His 0.18 average sits 64% below the standard 0.5 line, indicating books consistently overvalue his road power potential. The trend shows remarkable consistency with an 11-game under streak as his longest cold spell, suggesting this isn't random variance but a fundamental weakness. Benson's profile as a developing power hitter appears significantly hampered by unfamiliar ballparks, different sight lines, and the general challenges young players face on the road. The 56.2% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as oddsmakers haven't adequately adjusted for his road power deficiencies. While small sample concerns exist with any player-specific trend, the magnitude of this differential and its persistence across multiple months suggests a genuine skill-based edge rather than temporary struggles.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Will Benson's road home run props offer exceptional value with an 81.8% under rate and 56.2% ROI over 33 games. The 0.18 average against 0.5 lines creates a massive edge that books haven't corrected. Target this play consistently in away games, especially against quality pitching where his power limitations become more pronounced. The primary risk is sample size, but the trend's persistence and magnitude suggest sustainable value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Benson's Home Runs prop record away games?
Will Benson has gone 6-27-0 over/under on home run props in away games, hitting just 18.2% overs across 33 games from June 2023 to August 2024. This represents one of the most lopsided under trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Benson Home Runs away games?
Bet UNDER on Will Benson's home run props in away games with high confidence. The 81.8% under rate and 56.2% ROI over 33 games creates exceptional value that books haven't properly adjusted for.
What's Will Benson's average Home Runs away games?
Will Benson averages 0.18 home runs per away game compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.3 differential. This 64% gap below the betting line represents significant market inefficiency favoring unders.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Benson home run unders consistently in all away games, particularly against quality starting pitching where his power limitations become more pronounced. The trend shows remarkable consistency across different opponents and ballparks.