Will Benson's home hitting props present a historically dominant under opportunity, going just 5-22 over 27 games for an 18.5% hit rate. His 0.48 average sits 0.7 hits below the typical line, creating a massive -64.7% ROI on overs versus +55.6% on unders. This is a clear lean under with exceptional consistency.
Expert Analysis
Will Benson's home hitting struggles represent one of the most reliable prop trends in baseball, with an active 17-game under streak that speaks to fundamental offensive limitations rather than temporary variance. The 0.48 hits per home game average against a 1.13 line creates a staggering 0.65-hit gap that suggests books are slow to adjust to his actual production level. This isn't merely a cold streak—Benson's 18.5% over rate across 27 games indicates systematic issues with his approach at Great American Ball Park. The lack of any meaningful hot streaks (longest over run just 2 games) demonstrates remarkable consistency in underperformance. While regression is always possible in small samples, 27 games provides sufficient data to identify a genuine pattern. The +55.6% ROI on unders reflects not just winning bets, but winning them by significant margins as Benson frequently goes hitless rather than falling just short. The primary risk lies in potential lineup changes or mechanical adjustments, but his track record suggests any improvements would likely be gradual rather than sudden explosive changes that would immediately flip this trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Benson's home hitting props offer exceptional value on the under, supported by a 17-game active streak and massive line differential. The 18.5% over rate across 27 games creates a sustainable edge, though the sample size prevents high confidence. Target this prop when lines sit at 1+ hits, especially against quality pitching. Main risk is potential mechanical adjustments or increased playing time leading to natural improvement, but his consistent struggles suggest gradual change rather than sudden turnaround.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Will Benson's Hits prop record home games?
Will Benson's home hits props show a 5-22-0 over/under record across 27 games, translating to just 18.5% overs. He's currently riding a 17-game under streak with his longest over streak reaching only 2 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Will Benson Hits home games?
Bet under on Will Benson's hits props at home games. His 18.5% over rate and 0.48 average versus 1.13 typical line create exceptional under value, supported by a +55.6% ROI on under bets.
What's Will Benson's average Hits home games?
Will Benson averages 0.48 hits per home game compared to the typical 1.13 line, creating a massive 0.65-hit deficit. This 57% gap between production and expectations drives the strong under performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Will Benson's home hits props when lines are set at 1+ hits, particularly against quality starting pitching. His 17-game under streak and consistent struggles make any home game a potential under opportunity.