Wenceel Pérez has hit the under on his Total Bases prop in 5 of his last 10 games, going 5-5-0 with a 50% over rate. His 2.0 average falls 0.5 bases short of the typical 2.5 line, creating a slight lean toward the under despite the even split.
Expert Analysis
Pérez's Total Bases performance over the last 10 games reveals a player consistently falling just short of market expectations. His 2.0 average against a 2.5 line represents a meaningful 20% shortfall that suggests books may be overvaluing his offensive output. The perfectly even 5-5 split masks this underlying weakness, as the average tells a clearer story about his actual production level. What's particularly telling is the -4.5% ROI on both sides, indicating the juice is eating into any edge regardless of which side you take. The current streak of one over game doesn't establish any meaningful momentum, especially given the alternating pattern shown by equal-length streaks of three games in both directions. Without additional context about matchup quality, ballpark factors, or lineup position, we're left analyzing pure production data that points to a player whose recent output has been pedestrian. The lack of available splits data prevents deeper analysis of situational advantages, but the core numbers suggest Pérez has been a below-average producer relative to betting market expectations. This creates a scenario where the under appears to have a slight mathematical edge, though the sample size and even record demand caution.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pérez's 2.0 average falling half a base below the standard 2.5 line provides the clearest edge in an otherwise murky situation. The 50% over rate masks his consistent underperformance relative to market pricing. Target this when facing right-handed pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks to maximize the edge, but avoid betting heavy due to the limited sample size and lack of contextual data.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Wenceel Pérez's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Pérez went 5-5-0 over/under on his Total Bases props in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% overs. His average of 2.0 Total Bases fell consistently short of the typical 2.5 line during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Wenceel Pérez Total Bases last 10 games?
Lean under on Pérez's Total Bases props. His 2.0 average falls 0.5 bases below the standard 2.5 line, creating a mathematical edge despite the even 5-5 record that suggests consistent underperformance.
What's Wenceel Pérez's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Pérez averaged exactly 2.0 Total Bases over his last 10 games, which falls 0.5 bases short of the typical 2.5 line. This 20% shortfall represents meaningful underperformance relative to market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pérez Total Bases unders when he faces quality right-handed pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His recent pattern suggests consistent underperformance, making situational disadvantages ideal for maximizing the under edge.