Wenceel Pérez presents a compelling under opportunity with just 33.3% overs across 51 games, averaging 1.63 total bases against a 2.62 line. The massive -1.0 differential and +27.3% under ROI signal consistent underperformance that books haven't properly adjusted for.
Expert Analysis
Wenceel Pérez's total bases performance reveals a stark disconnect between market expectations and reality. Averaging 1.63 total bases against a 2.62 line creates a nearly one-base cushion for under bettors, suggesting oddsmakers are overvaluing his offensive ceiling. The 17-34 over/under record translates to hitting the over just once every three games, an unsustainable rate that indicates either inflated lines or genuine offensive limitations. The -36.4% over ROI demonstrates how costly backing overs has been, while the corresponding +27.3% under ROI shows consistent profitability on the opposite side. Pérez's longest under streak of seven games compared to just three overs suggests extended cold stretches are more common than hot streaks. This pattern typically emerges from players who lack consistent power or face challenging matchups that suppress extra-base production. The sample size of 51 games provides statistical significance, spanning nearly a full season of data. Without clear regression indicators or underlying metrics suggesting improvement, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for correction. The market's failure to adjust lines downward despite overwhelming evidence suggests continued value on unders.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 33.3% over rate and -1.0 average differential create a mathematical edge that's difficult to ignore. Pérez consistently falls short of inflated expectations, making unders the logical play. Risk exists if he finds sudden power surge or faces particularly favorable matchups, but the sustained underperformance suggests this is his true talent level rather than extended bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-01 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Wenceel Pérez's Total Bases prop record all games?
Pérez has gone over his total bases prop in just 17 of 51 games (33.3%), with 34 unders and no pushes. This 2-to-1 under ratio represents one of the more lopsided records in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Wenceel Pérez Total Bases all games?
Bet the under. With a 33.3% over rate and -1.0 average differential, the data overwhelmingly favors unders. The +27.3% under ROI confirms this has been consistently profitable throughout the season.
What's Wenceel Pérez's average Total Bases all games?
Pérez averages 1.63 total bases per game against a typical 2.62 line, creating a massive -1.0 differential. This means he falls nearly one full base short of expectations on average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target unders consistently given the sustained pattern. Without split data showing specific vulnerabilities, the broad trend suggests value exists across all game situations rather than selective spots.