Wenceel Pérez has been a consistent under play in home run props, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games with a -42.7% ROI on overs. His 0.3 home run average sits 0.2 below the typical 0.5 line, creating clear value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Pérez's home run drought reflects the reality of a utility player facing elevated expectations from sportsbooks. His 0.3 home run average over this 10-game stretch represents a player whose power output simply doesn't match the standard 0.5 line most books offer. The 30% over rate isn't just poor luck—it's systematic underperformance against inflated lines. The Tigers outfielder has managed just three home runs across these 10 contests, with his longest over streak capping at one game while enduring a four-game under streak. This suggests books haven't properly adjusted for Pérez's limited power ceiling. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this inefficiency, while the +33.6% under ROI confirms the edge remains exploitable. Pérez's profile as a contact-oriented player getting occasional starts means his power numbers will naturally fluctuate, but the sample size here suggests books are consistently overvaluing his long ball potential. Without significant lineup changes or a dramatic shift in approach, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pérez's consistent underperformance against the 0.5 home run line creates ongoing value, particularly when books haven't adjusted downward. Target spots where he faces quality pitching or in larger ballparks where his limited power plays down further. The main risk is small sample variance and potential lineup changes affecting his playing time and matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Wenceel Pérez's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Pérez has gone 3-7-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaged 0.3 home runs per game while the typical line sits at 0.5, creating a consistent 0.2 negative differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Wenceel Pérez Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Pérez's home run props. His 70% under rate and +33.6% under ROI over 10 games shows clear value, especially when books continue offering the standard 0.5 line despite his limited power output.
What's Wenceel Pérez's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Pérez has averaged 0.3 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.2 below the standard 0.5 line most sportsbooks offer. This gap represents the core inefficiency driving the under's profitability.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pérez home run unders when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His limited power ceiling makes him especially vulnerable in challenging offensive environments where contact hitters struggle to elevate.