Victor Scott II's home run props present one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under in 29 of 30 games (96.7% under rate) with a staggering -93.6% ROI on overs. Scott averages just 0.03 home runs per game against a typical 0.5 line, creating massive value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Victor Scott II's home run production represents a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and reality. His 0.03 home runs per game average sits 0.47 below the standard 0.5 line, indicating books are pricing him as a legitimate power threat when data suggests otherwise. This disconnect stems from Scott's profile as a speedy outfielder whose value comes from stolen bases and defense, not power. His 96.7% under rate across 30 games isn't a small sample fluke—it reflects his swing mechanics, approach, and role in the Cardinals lineup. Scott's longest home run drought reached 24 games, with only one over in his entire sample. The persistence of this trend suggests books haven't properly adjusted to his actual power output, likely influenced by positional bias or limited scouting data. His current five-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern. The risk lies in potential lineup changes or a mechanical adjustment, but his consistent approach and the Cardinals' emphasis on his speed over power suggests this trend has staying power. Books appear slow to adjust lines for utility players like Scott, creating sustained value for sharp bettors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Victor Scott II's home run props offer exceptional value with a 96.7% under rate and +84.5% ROI supporting systematic under betting. His 0.03 average sits nearly half a home run below typical lines, creating a massive edge. Bet unders in any game situation, especially when lines remain at 0.5. The primary risk is a dramatic role change, but his speed-first profile makes this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Victor Scott II's Home Runs prop record all games?
Victor Scott II has gone 1-29-0 on home run overs across 30 games, hitting the over just 3.3% of the time. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with unders cashing 29 times.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Victor Scott II Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on Victor Scott II's home run props with high confidence. His 96.7% under rate and +84.5% ROI on unders create exceptional value, especially with his 0.03 average sitting well below typical 0.5 lines.
What's Victor Scott II's average Home Runs all games?
Victor Scott II averages 0.03 home runs per game, which sits 0.47 below the typical 0.5 line. This massive differential of nearly half a home run explains why unders hit 96.7% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Victor Scott II home run unders in any game situation, as his 96.7% under rate shows no meaningful splits. Focus on games where the line remains at 0.5, maximizing the 0.47 average differential advantage.