Tyrone Taylor's total bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 25.0% overs with a devastating -0.7 differential versus the typical line. The Mets outfielder averages only 1.62 total bases in home games against a 2.31 standard line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Taylor's home struggles stem from multiple converging factors that create a systematic edge for under bettors. His 1.62 average total bases at Citi Field falls dramatically short of the 2.31 line books typically set, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home/road splits or are inflating numbers based on limited sample assumptions. The -52.3% ROI on overs tells the story of a player whose power simply doesn't translate in his home environment. Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions likely contribute to this trend, as Taylor's fly ball tendencies get neutralized by the park's spacious outfield. The consistency is striking - just four overs in sixteen home games indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Books appear slow to adjust, continuing to set lines that reflect league-average expectations rather than Taylor's specific home performance. The longest under streak of four games suggests sustainable momentum when the trend takes hold. With no meaningful splits data to suggest situational variance, this appears to be a clean environmental effect where Taylor's skill set simply doesn't match his home ballpark's characteristics.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Taylor's home total bases prop offers exceptional value with a 75% hit rate and significant line differential. The combination of park factors, consistent underperformance, and slow market adjustment creates a sustainable edge. Target this prop when lines are set at 2.0 or higher for maximum value, though even standard offerings provide positive expected value given the dramatic historical underperformance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrone Taylor's Total Bases prop record home games?
Taylor's total bases prop at home shows a 4-12-0 over/under record, hitting just 25.0% overs across 16 games from March through September 2024. This represents one of the most lopsided prop trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrone Taylor Total Bases home games?
Bet the under with confidence. Taylor's home total bases average of 1.62 creates consistent value against standard lines around 2.31, producing +43.2% ROI for under bettors versus devastating -52.3% losses on overs.
What's Tyrone Taylor's average Total Bases home games?
Taylor averages 1.62 total bases in home games, falling 0.7 bases short of the typical 2.31 line. This massive differential explains the 75% under hit rate and exceptional profitability for contrarian bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taylor's total bases under when lines are set at 2.0 or higher for maximum edge. Home games at Citi Field provide the ideal conditions, particularly when books haven't adjusted for his park-specific struggles.