Tyrone Taylor's home hitting props present a compelling under opportunity, going 5-11-0 over/under for just 31.2% overs with a devastating -0.25 differential versus the typical 1.31 line. The Mets outfielder averages only 1.06 hits per home game, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Taylor's home hitting struggles stem from a combination of Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions and his own inconsistent contact profile. The 1.06 hits per game average represents a significant 19% shortfall from the standard 1.31 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home venue struggles. This isn't merely a small sample aberration—the -40.3% ROI on overs indicates systematic overvaluation of Taylor's hitting ability at home. The current four-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, as Taylor has managed just two consecutive overs all season at Citi Field. His home environment appears to amplify existing plate discipline issues, with Citi Field's expansive foul territory and pitcher-friendly dimensions working against his aggressive approach. The 31.2% over rate is statistically significant enough to suggest this trend has staying power, particularly given Taylor's role as a fourth outfielder limits his exposure to premium matchups. Regression toward league averages seems unlikely given the structural factors at play, making this one of the more reliable under trends in the current market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Taylor's 1.06 home hits average creates consistent line value, particularly when books post 1.5+ lines. The ideal spot comes against quality pitching where the under becomes even more pronounced. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or favorable matchups against struggling lefties, but the 69% under rate provides solid long-term value despite occasional variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrone Taylor's Hits prop record home games?
Taylor's home hits props show a clear under bias at 5-11-0 over/under (31.2% overs). He averages 1.06 hits per game at Citi Field across 16 games, significantly underperforming the typical 1.31 line with a -0.25 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrone Taylor Hits home games?
Bet under on Taylor's home hits props. The 69% under rate and -0.25 line differential create consistent value, especially on 1.5+ lines. His Citi Field struggles are well-documented with a current four-game under streak supporting the trend.
What's Tyrone Taylor's average Hits home games?
Taylor averages 1.06 hits per home game, notably below the standard 1.31 line most books offer. This 19% shortfall represents significant line value, as he's consistently underperforming oddsmaker expectations at Citi Field throughout the 2024 season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taylor home under bets against quality starting pitching and when lines are set at 1.5+. Avoid spots against struggling lefties or in potential blowout games where garbage time hits could swing the prop unexpectedly in late innings.