Tyler Stephenson has been a consistent under play over his last 10 games, going 4-6 on the over with a -0.5 differential between his 0.9 average and typical 1.4 line. The under trend shows +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% on overs, creating a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Stephenson's hitting struggles over this 10-game sample reveal a catcher dealing with the physical toll of his position late in the season. His 0.9 hits per game average sits meaningfully below the standard 1.4 line, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to his recent decline. The 40% over rate indicates consistent underperformance rather than random variance. Most telling is the five-game under streak that dominated the middle of this sample, showing sustained offensive struggles. Catchers historically fade in September due to accumulated wear, and Stephenson fits this pattern perfectly. His recent two-game over streak appears more like dead cat bounce than genuine turnaround, especially given the modest 0.9 average that includes those better performances. The +14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just a cold streak but a genuine edge against inflated lines. Without significant rest or a position change, Stephenson's bat remains compromised by the defensive workload that defines his role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.9 average against 1.4 lines creates consistent value, backed by +14.6% under ROI and a clear pattern of late-season catcher fatigue. Target games where Stephenson catches day games after night games or faces quality pitching. Main risk is the recent two-game over streak potentially signaling a breakout, but the underlying metrics suggest continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Stephenson's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Tyler Stephenson has gone 4-6 on his hits over/under in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. This translates to 6 unders and 4 overs, with unders showing significantly better returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Stephenson Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Tyler Stephenson's hits. His 0.9 average sits well below typical 1.4 lines, and unders have produced +14.6% ROI while overs lose -23.6%. The trend favors continued underperformance despite his recent two-game over streak.
What's Tyler Stephenson's average Hits last 10 games?
Tyler Stephenson averages 0.9 hits over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.4 line, creating a -0.5 differential. This gap represents consistent value on under bets throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Stephenson under bets in day games after night games when fatigue peaks, or against quality starting pitching. Avoid betting after extended rest days or in favorable hitting environments like Coors Field.