Tyler Soderstrom's home run production at Oakland Coliseum presents a stark inefficiency in the betting market. With just one over in 10 home games (10.0% hit rate) and averaging 0.1 homers against a 0.5 line, the under delivers exceptional value at +71.8% ROI. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
The Oakland Coliseum's pitcher-friendly dimensions create a perfect storm against Soderstrom's home run production at home. Averaging just 0.1 home runs per home game while books consistently set his line at 0.5 reveals a fundamental disconnect between market pricing and reality. The 90.0% under rate isn't just impressive—it's historically dominant for a sample this size. Soderstrom's power profile suggests he needs ideal conditions to clear the fence, and the Coliseum's expansive foul territory and marine layer consistently work against him. The three-game under streak extending to six games at one point demonstrates the consistency of this trend. Most concerning for over bettors is that even Oakland's offensive-friendly games haven't translated to Soderstrom power surges at home. The -80.9% ROI on overs reflects how badly the market has mispriced this prop throughout his home sample. While regression is always possible with small samples, the underlying park factors and Soderstrom's contact profile suggest this trend has legitimate staying power rather than being pure variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 90.0% under rate combined with Oakland Coliseum's pitcher-friendly dimensions creates a compelling edge, especially with the consistent -0.4 differential between Soderstrom's actual production and the betting line. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, as the park factors and his contact profile align against home run production. Main risk is the small sample size potentially masking underlying power development.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Soderstrom's Home Runs prop record home games?
Tyler Soderstrom has gone 1-9-0 on his home runs over/under in home games, hitting just 10.0% of overs. He's averaging only 0.1 home runs per home game while the typical line sits at 0.5, creating a massive -0.4 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Soderstrom Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Tyler Soderstrom's home runs in home games. The 90.0% under rate combined with Oakland Coliseum's pitcher-friendly dimensions and his 0.1 average against a 0.5 line creates strong value on the under side.
What's Tyler Soderstrom's average Home Runs home games?
Tyler Soderstrom averages 0.1 home runs per home game, significantly below the standard 0.5 betting line. This -0.4 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual production and market expectations in his prop portfolio.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler Soderstrom's home runs under when the line is set at 0.5 in home games at Oakland Coliseum. The combination of park factors and his contact profile creates the most favorable conditions for under bets.