Tyler O'Neill has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, going 1-9-0 under with just a 10.0% over rate. Averaging 0.7 total bases against a 2.7 line creates a massive -2.0 differential that screams systematic underperformance. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
O'Neill's total bases collapse represents one of the most lopsided trends in recent memory, with his 0.7 average sitting 74% below the typical 2.7 line. This isn't just bad luck—it suggests fundamental issues with his approach or physical condition during this stretch. The six-game under streak indicates persistent problems, whether from pressing at the plate, facing tougher pitching, or dealing with minor injuries that affect his power stroke. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the magnitude of the miss rate. O'Neill isn't barely missing overs; he's falling catastrophically short, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted to his current form. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates the market's slow adaptation to his struggles. However, regression concerns are real with such extreme numbers. O'Neill possesses legitimate power when healthy, and this level of underperformance rarely sustains indefinitely. The risk lies in timing—catching the inevitable positive regression game where he connects for multiple extra-base hits and destroys the under thesis in a single swing.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 10% over rate and -2.0 differential create compelling under value, but the extreme nature raises regression flags. Target this trend when O'Neill faces quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly parks where his power is further suppressed. The main risk is catching him on the inevitable breakout game where his natural talent resurfaces.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler O'Neill's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Tyler O'Neill has gone 1-9-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of overs. He's averaging only 0.7 total bases against typical lines around 2.7, creating a massive underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler O'Neill Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Tyler O'Neill's total bases props. His 10% over rate and -2.0 differential from the line create strong under value, though be cautious of potential positive regression given the extreme numbers.
What's Tyler O'Neill's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Tyler O'Neill is averaging just 0.7 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.7. This represents a staggering 74% underperformance that suggests serious form or health issues.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler O'Neill total bases unders when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Avoid betting during potential bounce-back spots against weak pitching where regression risk is highest.