Tyler O'Neill's total bases props present a compelling under opportunity with just 33.3% overs across 39 games and a massive -0.9 differential below the typical 2.19 line. The Red Sox outfielder is currently riding a six-game under streak, extending what has been a season-long pattern of disappointing power output relative to betting expectations.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose power production has consistently fallen short of oddsmaker expectations throughout 2024. O'Neill's 1.33 average total bases against a 2.19 line represents a staggering gap that suggests either inflated lines based on reputation or a genuine decline in his extra-base hit ability. This isn't a small sample anomaly—39 games provides substantial evidence of a systematic edge. The -36.4% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors chasing O'Neill's past power numbers while ignoring his current reality. His six-game under streak matches his season-long under streak, indicating this trend has legs rather than being due for regression. The 27.3% ROI on unders demonstrates that this edge has been profitable for disciplined bettors. O'Neill's struggles likely stem from either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or simply aging out of his peak power years. Without split data to identify his strongest spots, the consistency of the under performance across all game situations makes this one of the more reliable prop trends available. The key risk is a sudden hot streak, but the sustained nature of this pattern suggests underlying factors rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. O'Neill's total bases props offer consistent value on the under side, with the 1.33 average creating significant line value when books post 2+ total bases. The six-game under streak and season-long 67% under rate indicate this isn't variance but a sustainable edge. Primary risk is a power surge breaking the pattern, but the underlying metrics support continued under performance until proven otherwise.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler O'Neill's Total Bases prop record all games?
Tyler O'Neill has gone under his total bases prop in 26 of 39 games (67%) with an average of just 1.33 total bases. His over record stands at a dismal 13-26, representing one of the most consistent under trends in baseball props this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler O'Neill Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Tyler O'Neill's total bases props when the line is 2.0 or higher. His 1.33 average creates significant value, and the 27.3% ROI on unders with a 67% hit rate makes this a profitable long-term strategy.
What's Tyler O'Neill's average Total Bases all games?
O'Neill averages 1.33 total bases per game, nearly a full base below the typical 2.19 line. This -0.86 differential represents one of the largest gaps between performance and betting expectations, creating consistent under value throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet O'Neill total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, regardless of matchup. With no significant split advantages identified and consistent under performance across all situations, every qualifying game presents betting value on the under side.