Tyler O'Neill presents one of the season's most reliable under plays, hitting over just 7 times in 39 games (17.9% rate). His 0.21 home run average sits significantly below the standard 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders with +56.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
O'Neill's home run struggles represent a dramatic departure from his peak Cardinals years, where he averaged 34 homers across 2020-2021. The 0.3 differential between his actual production and betting lines suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his diminished power output in Boston. Several factors explain this decline: Fenway Park's dimensions don't favor his pull-heavy approach like Busch Stadium did, and his 2024 campaign was plagued by injury concerns that sapped his bat speed. The 14-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how completely his power disappeared during extended stretches. Most telling is the consistency of this trend—O'Neill failed to reach 0.5 home runs in 82.1% of his games, indicating this isn't variance but a fundamental shift in his offensive profile. His swing-and-miss tendencies increased while his exit velocity decreased, creating a perfect storm for under bettors. The market's slow adjustment to his new reality, combined with name recognition from his All-Star seasons, has kept lines artificially high. With only seven games eclipsing the standard 0.5 threshold across nearly 40 contests, O'Neill's home run props became a systematic fade opportunity throughout 2024.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. O'Neill's 17.9% over rate represents exceptional systematic value, particularly given the market's reluctance to fully adjust his lines downward. The ideal betting spot comes when books post 0.5+ lines based on his past reputation rather than current production. Main risk involves potential lineup changes or favorable matchups against struggling right-handed pitching, but his consistent struggles make unders the clear play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Tyler O'Neill props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler O'Neill's Home Runs prop record all games?
Tyler O'Neill went over his home runs prop just 7 times in 39 games (17.9% rate) with a 7-32-0 record. His average of 0.21 home runs per game fell well short of standard 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler O'Neill Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Tyler O'Neill's home runs props. His 17.9% over rate and +56.6% under ROI make this one of the season's most reliable fade opportunities with exceptional systematic value.
What's Tyler O'Neill's average Home Runs all games?
Tyler O'Neill averaged 0.21 home runs per game in 2024, creating a significant 0.3 negative differential against the standard 0.5 betting line. This gap represents consistent under value throughout his season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyler O'Neill home run unders when books post 0.5+ lines, especially against quality right-handed pitching at Fenway Park. His power struggles were most pronounced during extended homestands and day games.