Tyler Freeman's total bases production has been ice cold, hitting under in 8 of 10 games (20% over rate) while averaging just 0.8 total bases against a 2.4 line. The massive -1.6 differential and current 3-game under streak signal continued struggles at the plate.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's total bases collapse reflects a hitter completely out of sync at the major league level. Averaging 0.8 total bases against a 2.4 line represents a staggering 67% underperformance that suggests fundamental swing mechanics issues rather than temporary bad luck. The 20% over rate across 10 games indicates consistent struggles making quality contact, likely stemming from elevated strikeout rates and weak contact when he does connect. Freeman's profile as a utility player getting sporadic playing time compounds these issues, as irregular at-bats prevent rhythm development crucial for offensive production. The current 3-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern of failing to reach base multiple times per game. While regression toward league averages typically occurs over larger samples, Freeman's limited role and apparent mechanical struggles suggest this underperformance may persist longer than normal statistical variance would predict. The -61.8% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market has overvalued his offensive capabilities, creating sustained value on the under. His contact quality metrics likely show elevated popup rates and decreased hard-hit percentage, explaining why even his hits rarely translate to extra bases.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's total bases production shows zero signs of improvement, with the 0.8 average representing a massive 67% underperformance versus the typical 2.4 line. The consistent failure to reach even modest expectations across 10 games, combined with his limited role creating rhythm issues, makes the under the clear play until his mechanics improve significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Freeman has gone under his total bases prop in 8 of his last 10 games, posting a dismal 20% over rate. He's averaging just 0.8 total bases per game against lines typically set around 2.4, creating a massive -1.6 differential that highlights his offensive struggles.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Freeman's 0.8 average versus 2.4 lines represents a 67% underperformance that shows no signs of improvement. His current 3-game under streak and consistent failure to meet modest expectations make the under the clear value play.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Freeman is averaging just 0.8 total bases over his last 10 games, a staggering 1.6 bases below the typical 2.4 line. This 67% underperformance reflects serious contact issues and explains why unders have hit in 80% of his recent games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman total bases unders when he's in a utility role with irregular playing time, as rhythm is crucial for offensive success. His mechanical struggles make any line above 1.5 total bases an automatic under consideration until he shows sustained improvement.