Tyler Freeman has been a home run desert over his last 10 games, hitting the over just once while posting a brutal 1-9-0 record against the 0.5 line. His 0.1 home run average sits 0.4 below the standard prop, creating significant under value with +71.8% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's home run drought reflects the reality of a utility player who prioritizes contact over power. His 0.1 home run rate over this 10-game stretch aligns with his career profile as a gap-to-gap hitter rather than a power threat. The 6-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather the expected outcome for a player whose swing mechanics and approach favor line drives over fly balls. Freeman's plate discipline focuses on putting balls in play rather than selling out for power, making the 0.5 home run line consistently inflated. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Freeman's true power profile. His role as a versatile defender who moves around the diamond often means he's playing for contact and situational hitting rather than launching balls over the fence. The persistence of this trend suggests books are slow to adjust Freeman's home run props to reflect his actual power output, creating sustained under value for sharp bettors.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's contact-first approach and 90% under rate over 10 games creates clear value on the under, especially with the standard 0.5 line sitting 0.4 above his actual average. The trend shows strong persistence with a 6-game under streak. Main risk is regression to his career norms, but his fundamental hitting approach supports continued under performance on home run props.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Freeman is 1-9-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of his over bets. He's averaging 0.1 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.4 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Freeman's home run props. His 90% under rate and 0.1 average versus 0.5 line creates clear value. The 6-game under streak reflects his contact-first approach rather than bad luck, making unders the sharp play.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Freeman averages 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.4 below the standard 0.5 prop line. This massive differential explains the 90% under rate and +71.8% ROI for under bettors during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman home run unders when he's facing quality pitching or playing in pitcher-friendly parks. His contact-oriented approach makes him particularly unlikely to clear 0.5 home runs in challenging offensive environments or high-leverage situations requiring situational hitting.