Tyler Freeman's home run props in away games present a massive under opportunity with just 7.1% overs across 28 games. Freeman has averaged only 0.07 home runs per away game against a typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.4 differential. The under shows exceptional consistency with 16 consecutive hits.
Expert Analysis
Tyler Freeman's home run drought in away games represents one of the most reliable prop trends in baseball. Averaging just 0.07 home runs per road game over a 28-game sample, Freeman has managed only two home runs total in away venues since August 2023. This isn't a small sample anomaly—it's a fundamental reflection of Freeman's profile as a contact-first middle infielder who lacks the raw power to consistently clear fences, particularly in unfamiliar ballparks. The 16-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting Freeman's approach doesn't change based on matchups or situations. His road struggles likely stem from the comfort factor of playing at Progressive Field, where he's more familiar with wind patterns and dimensions. The -86.4% ROI on overs tells the complete story—this isn't variance, it's Freeman's ceiling. Road environments typically suppress offensive numbers, and for a player already operating with minimal power upside, away games create an even steeper hill to climb. The 7.1% over rate indicates books may be setting lines too generously, potentially accounting for Freeman's overall season totals rather than his specific road splits. This trend shows no signs of regression given Freeman's established hitting profile and the inherent challenges of road baseball.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's road power numbers represent a fundamental mismatch with typical 0.5 home run lines. The 16-game under streak and 7.1% over rate indicate books haven't fully adjusted to his away venue limitations. Target this prop in any away game, particularly in pitcher-friendly parks or against quality pitching staffs where Freeman's contact-over-power approach becomes even less likely to produce home runs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyler Freeman's Home Runs prop record away games?
Freeman is 2-26-0 on home run overs in away games, hitting just 7.1% of over bets. He's managed only two total home runs across 28 road games, creating one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyler Freeman Home Runs away games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Freeman's 7.1% over rate and 16-game under streak in away venues make this one of the strongest prop edges available. His contact-first approach simply doesn't translate to road power.
What's Tyler Freeman's average Home Runs away games?
Freeman averages 0.07 home runs per away game, creating a massive -0.4 differential against typical 0.5 lines. This represents the gap between his actual road power production and market expectations set by sportsbooks.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman home run unders in any away game, especially in pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality pitching staffs. His road power limitations are consistent regardless of matchup, making every away game a betting opportunity.