Trevor Story has been a disaster for total bases overs, hitting just 30% (3-7-0) while averaging 1.4 bases against a 2.6 line. The massive -1.2 differential and brutal -42.7% ROI on overs creates a compelling under opportunity with strong mathematical backing.
Expert Analysis
Story's total bases collapse reflects a perfect storm of declining performance factors. The 1.4 average against a 2.6 line represents a staggering 46% underperformance, suggesting either the market hasn't adjusted to his current form or deeper mechanical issues persist. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates systematic value destruction for over bettors, while under backers enjoyed +33.6% returns. Most telling is the streak pattern: Story managed just one over in his last 10 games, with a brutal six-game under streak highlighting consistent offensive struggles. This isn't random variance—it's sustained poor performance. The lack of split data prevents deeper context, but the raw numbers suggest either injury concerns, timing issues, or a fundamental decline in bat speed and power. When a player consistently fails to reach modest total bases lines by such wide margins, it typically indicates either a market inefficiency or legitimate physical limitations. The 70% under rate with such strong ROI metrics suggests the latter, making this a high-conviction fade opportunity until the market properly adjusts or Story shows concrete signs of improvement.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Story's 70% under rate and -1.2 average differential create clear value, but the small 10-game sample and lack of contextual data prevent maximum conviction. Target unders when lines remain at 2.5+ bases, especially in tough pitching matchups. Main risk is immediate regression to career norms, but current form suggests continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Story's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Story went 3-7-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% while averaging 1.4 bases against typical 2.6 lines. This represents a massive underperformance and strong under betting opportunity.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Story Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Story's total bases props. His 70% under rate, -1.2 average differential, and +33.6% under ROI create clear value. Target lines at 2.5+ bases for maximum edge until he shows improvement.
What's Trevor Story's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Story averaged just 1.4 total bases over his last 10 games compared to typical 2.6 lines, creating a massive -1.2 differential. This 46% underperformance suggests either market lag or legitimate decline in offensive capability.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Story total bases unders when lines stay at 2.5+ bases, especially against quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly parks. Avoid when lines drop below 2.0 as the market may have overcorrected to his struggles.