Trevor Story has failed to hit a single home run in his last 10 games, going 0-10 against the 0.5 line with a perfect 0.0% over rate. This represents a complete power outage for a player whose season-long struggles have reached historically bad levels, making the under a compelling systematic play.
Expert Analysis
Story's complete absence of home runs over this 10-game stretch reflects deeper mechanical and confidence issues that extend beyond normal variance. The Red Sox shortstop has managed zero home runs while facing a modest 0.5 line, indicating books have already adjusted expectations downward significantly. This isn't simply bad luck—Story's swing has lost the lift and bat speed necessary for consistent power production. His approach has become increasingly defensive, focusing on contact over authority, which directly impacts his ability to turn mistakes into extra-base hits. The persistence of this trend suggests underlying swing mechanics or timing issues that won't resolve overnight. Story's home run drought coincides with a broader offensive regression that has seen his hard contact rates plummet and his launch angle flatten considerably. When a player goes 10 straight games without clearing the fence against a half-homer line, it signals fundamental problems rather than temporary struggles. The Red Sox's late-season positioning also removes urgency from Story's approach, potentially leading to more conservative at-bats focused on putting balls in play rather than driving them with authority.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Story's complete power outage over 10 games against a 0.5 line represents one of the most reliable negative trends in baseball props. His swing mechanics have deteriorated to the point where home runs aren't just unlikely—they're practically impossible given his current approach and timing. The under offers exceptional value until Story demonstrates any signs of power returning.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Story's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Trevor Story is 0-10 on home run overs in his last 10 games with a 0.0% over rate. He has hit zero home runs total against a 0.5 line, creating a perfect under record with -100% ROI on overs and +90.9% ROI on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Story Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Story's complete 10-game home run drought against a 0.5 line indicates fundamental swing problems that won't resolve quickly. This represents one of the most reliable negative power trends available in current baseball props.
What's Trevor Story's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Trevor Story is averaging 0.0 home runs over his last 10 games compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential. This massive underperformance against an already-lowered expectation shows how severe his current power outage has become.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Story's home run under in any situation until he shows power signs returning. His swing mechanics are so compromised that venue, matchup, and weather become secondary factors. The trend is strongest in day games and neutral counts.