Trevor Larnach's total bases prop presents a strong under opportunity in away games, going under at a 57.1% clip (12-9-0 record) with a healthy +9.1% ROI. His 2.19 average sits 0.2 bases below the typical 2.4 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Larnach struggling to reach his total bases number on the road. His 2.19 average versus the 2.4 line represents meaningful separation that suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his road limitations. The -18.2% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has been punishing the inflated lines, while under bettors have profited at +9.1%. This isn't a small sample fluke either — 21 games provides sufficient data to identify a legitimate edge. Larnach's road struggles likely stem from the typical factors that plague hitters away from home: unfamiliar environments, hostile crowds, and varying ballpark dimensions that don't favor his swing. The 4-game under streak he recently snapped demonstrates the consistency of this trend, though the 3-game over streak shows he can occasionally break through. What makes this particularly attractive is the persistence factor — road hitting struggles tend to be psychological and mechanical issues that don't resolve quickly. The 42.9% over rate creates a clear mathematical edge when betting unders, especially if books continue setting lines around his season averages rather than his road-specific performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Larnach's road total bases props offer legitimate value with his 2.19 average consistently falling short of typical 2.4 lines. The +9.1% under ROI and 57.1% hit rate create a sustainable edge. Primary risk is variance — his 3-game over streak proves he can heat up quickly and demolish this trend temporarily.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Trevor Larnach props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trevor Larnach's Total Bases prop record away games?
Trevor Larnach has gone under his total bases prop in 12 of 21 away games (57.1% rate) with a 12-9-0 under record. His road performance shows consistent struggles reaching the posted numbers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trevor Larnach Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Larnach's total bases in away games. His 2.19 road average falls short of typical 2.4 lines, creating value with a +9.1% ROI and 57.1% under hit rate.
What's Trevor Larnach's average Total Bases away games?
Larnach averages 2.19 total bases in away games, which runs 0.2 bases below the standard 2.4 line. This gap represents the primary value source for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Larnach total bases unders specifically in away games where his 57.1% under rate creates the edge. Avoid during hot streaks, but the road environment consistently limits his production.