Trea Turner's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 40% over the last 10 games with a devastating -0.8 differential below the standard 3.0 line. The under has generated a strong 14.6% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged 23.6%. This trend screams LEAN UNDER.
Expert Analysis
Turner's total bases struggles reflect a concerning late-season slide that goes beyond typical variance. Averaging just 2.2 total bases against a 3.0 line represents a significant gap that suggests either injury concerns, fatigue, or a fundamental shift in his approach. The 40% over rate across 10 games provides meaningful sample size, especially when coupled with the brutal -0.8 differential. What's particularly telling is the streak pattern showing longer under runs (3 games) than over streaks (1 game), indicating this isn't random distribution but sustained underperformance. The timing is crucial - this sample spans late August through September, traditionally when accumulated wear shows up for everyday players like Turner. His speed-dependent game could be compromised by minor injuries or general fatigue that don't appear on injury reports. The consistency of the underperformance, with unders generating positive ROI while overs crater at -23.6%, suggests books haven't fully adjusted lines to reflect Turner's diminished production. Without splits data to identify specific vulnerabilities, the overall trend becomes the primary signal, and it's pointing decisively toward continued struggles reaching the standard 3.0 total bases threshold.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Turner's sustained underperformance over 10 games, averaging 2.2 total bases against 3.0 lines, represents more than variance - it's a legitimate trend worth exploiting. The ideal spot is when books offer 3.0+ total bases, particularly in day games or against quality pitching where his speed advantage diminishes. The main risk is regression to career norms, but late-season fatigue patterns suggest this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trea Turner's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Turner has gone over his total bases prop just 4 times in his last 10 games (40% rate) with a 4-6-0 record. He's averaging 2.2 total bases against the typical 3.0 line, creating a significant -0.8 differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trea Turner Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Turner's total bases props. His 40% over rate and -0.8 differential below standard lines have generated 14.6% ROI for under bets while overs have lost 23.6%. The trend shows sustained underperformance, not random variance.
What's Trea Turner's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Turner is averaging 2.2 total bases over his last 10 games, which sits 0.8 bases below the standard 3.0 line. This substantial gap represents consistent underperformance rather than typical variance, making under bets the clear value play.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Turner total bases unders when books offer 3.0+ bases, especially in day games or against quality pitching. Late-season fatigue appears to be limiting his extra-base production, making September and October particularly favorable for under bets.