Trea Turner's hits prop at home presents a clear under opportunity with just 40.0% overs across 10 games and a negative 0.1 differential versus the typical 1.0 line. The 4-6-0 record translates to +14.6% ROI on unders, making this a solid contrarian play.
Expert Analysis
Turner's home hitting struggles create a compelling fade opportunity that the market hasn't fully adjusted to. His 1.1 average at Citizens Bank Park falls short of the standard 1.0 line, indicating consistent underperformance in his home environment. The 40% over rate across 10 games suggests this isn't random variance but a genuine trend worth exploiting. Philadelphia's ballpark dimensions and Turner's approach may create unfavorable conditions for accumulating hits, particularly against quality pitching. The recent 2-game over streak could actually present value as books might shade the line higher, creating even better under spots. What's most telling is the sustained underperformance - Turner has hit the under in 6 of 10 home games, with his longest under streak reaching 4 games compared to just 2 for overs. This pattern suggests either mechanical adjustments needed in his home environment or external factors consistently impacting his contact quality. The +14.6% ROI on unders indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, but recreational betting on the popular Phillies star likely keeps lines inflated. Turner's speed and contact skills make him a natural over target for casual bettors, creating the perfect storm for continued under value at home.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Turner's home hitting props offer consistent value with 60% under success and positive ROI backing the trend. The ideal spot comes when books set the line at 1.5 hits, maximizing the gap between his 1.1 average and the number. Main risk is Turner breaking out of his home funk, but the sustained pattern across 10 games suggests this edge has staying power through the season.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-05-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Trea Turner's Hits prop record home games?
Turner's hits prop record at home stands at 4-6-0 over/under across 10 games, translating to a 40% over rate. This 6-4 under advantage has generated a +14.6% ROI for under bettors while overs show a -23.6% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Trea Turner Hits home games?
Bet under on Turner's hits props at home games. The 60% under success rate and +14.6% ROI provide clear mathematical edges, especially when the line sits at 1.5 hits given his 1.1 home average.
What's Trea Turner's average Hits home games?
Turner averages 1.1 hits per home game, which sits 0.1 above the typical 1.0 line but creates under value when books set 1.5. This small differential becomes significant over larger sample sizes for consistent profits.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when Turner's line reaches 1.5 hits at home, maximizing the gap versus his 1.1 average. Target games after short over streaks when books might shade lines higher based on recency bias.