Tommy Edman's hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 20.0% overs across 10 games, averaging 0.8 hits against a 1.5 line. The -0.7 differential and exceptional +52.7% under ROI make this one of the season's strongest fade candidates.
Expert Analysis
Edman's transition to the Dodgers has created a perfect storm for under bettors. His 0.8 hits average sits a full 0.7 below the standard 1.5 line, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted for his role change and reduced offensive output in Los Angeles. The 20.0% over rate across 10 games isn't just bad luck—it reflects fundamental changes in his approach and opportunity. Most telling is the streak data: Edman managed just one 2-game over streak while recording a devastating 6-game under run, indicating consistent struggles rather than isolated cold spells. The -61.8% over ROI demonstrates how severely overpriced this prop has been, while the +52.7% under ROI represents genuine market inefficiency. What makes this trend particularly sustainable is the lack of meaningful positive regression signs. Edman's contact quality and plate discipline haven't shown improvement, and his role in the Dodgers' loaded lineup limits his ceiling. The books appear slow to adjust, creating ongoing value for under bettors who recognize this isn't variance but a new reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Edman's 0.8 hits average creates a massive 0.7 cushion below the 1.5 line, while the 20.0% over rate and +52.7% under ROI indicate persistent market mispricing. Target this prop in any matchup, as the edge stems from role changes rather than opponent-specific factors. Main risk is eventual line adjustment, making current opportunities time-sensitive.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tommy Edman's Hits prop record all games?
Tommy Edman's hits prop record shows 2-8-0 over/under across 10 games, translating to just 20.0% overs. He's averaging 0.8 hits per game against the typical 1.5 line, creating a significant -0.7 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tommy Edman Hits all games?
Bet UNDER on Tommy Edman's hits props with high confidence. The 20.0% over rate, 0.8 average against 1.5 line, and +52.7% under ROI create compelling value. His role change in Los Angeles has fundamentally reduced his offensive output.
What's Tommy Edman's average Hits all games?
Tommy Edman averages 0.8 hits per game, sitting 0.7 hits below the standard 1.5 prop line. This substantial gap explains why under bettors have enjoyed +52.7% ROI while overs have produced devastating -61.8% losses across his 10-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tommy Edman hits unders in any matchup, as the edge stems from his reduced role rather than opponent factors. The 6-game under streak and consistent 0.8 average suggest this trend persists regardless of pitching matchup or game situation.