TJ Friedl's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over his last 10 games with a crushing -1.5 differential from the typical 3.2 line. The Reds outfielder is averaging only 1.7 total bases during this stretch, creating exceptional value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
TJ Friedl's total bases collapse represents one of the season's most profitable under trends, with the Cincinnati center fielder failing to reach his line in 8 of 10 recent contests. The 1.7 average against a 3.2 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and current production. This isn't a small sample fluke—Friedl is mired in a legitimate power drought that's persisted across multiple weeks. The five-game under streak suggests this is more than variance, likely reflecting either a mechanical issue, injury management, or simply the natural regression of a player whose early-season power surge was unsustainable. September baseball often sees role players like Friedl pressed into everyday duty despite fatigue, creating these exploitable inefficiencies. The market appears slow to adjust to his diminished extra-base production, continuing to set lines based on his season-long numbers rather than recent form. While any player can break out of a slump, the consistency of Friedl's recent struggles suggests this trend has staying power. The total bases prop is particularly vulnerable because it requires not just contact, but quality contact for doubles and home runs—exactly what's been missing from Friedl's approach.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. TJ Friedl's total bases props have become automatic under plays, with the market stubbornly overvaluing his current production level. Target this trend when lines remain inflated above 3.0, especially in day games or against quality pitching where his power limitations become more pronounced. The primary risk is a sudden breakout performance, but his consistent struggles suggest this inefficiency persists.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is TJ Friedl's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
TJ Friedl has gone under his total bases prop in 8 of his last 10 games, posting a dismal 20% over rate. This 2-8-0 record has generated a devastating -61.8% ROI for over bettors while rewarding under backers with +52.7% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on TJ Friedl Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on TJ Friedl's total bases props with high confidence. His 1.7 average against typical 3.2 lines creates exceptional value, and the five-game under streak suggests this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge worth exploiting.
What's TJ Friedl's average Total Bases last 10 games?
TJ Friedl is averaging just 1.7 total bases over his last 10 games, a massive 1.5 bases below the typical 3.2 line. This differential represents one of the season's largest gaps between market expectation and actual production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target TJ Friedl total bases unders when lines exceed 3.0, particularly in day games or against quality starting pitching. His power struggles are most exploitable when the market maintains inflated expectations despite clear evidence of diminished extra-base production.