TJ Friedl's total bases prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity with an 8-22-0 record (26.7% overs) and -1.1 average differential below the typical 2.8 line. The consistent underperformance across 30 games suggests a clear lean under.
Expert Analysis
TJ Friedl's road struggles with total bases reflect a classic case of environmental adjustment challenges that plague many contact hitters. His 1.67 average falls significantly short of the standard 2.8 line, creating a substantial -1.1 differential that indicates consistent market overvaluation. The 26.7% over rate across 30 games provides robust sample size confidence, while the -49.1% ROI on overs demonstrates how punishing this trend has been for contrarian bettors. Friedl's profile as a speed-first outfielder likely contributes to this pattern, as his power numbers diminish in unfamiliar ballparks where he can't leverage home field advantages like wind patterns and sight lines. The longest under streak of five games shows this isn't just variance but systematic underperformance. Center fielders often struggle more on the road due to defensive positioning adjustments, which can impact their offensive rhythm and plate approach. The complete absence of recent positive momentum, combined with the persistent nature of this trend spanning over a year, suggests the market hasn't properly adjusted to Friedl's road limitations. This creates ongoing value for under bettors who recognize the pattern.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. TJ Friedl's total bases prop in away games offers consistent value based on his 1.67 average versus the 2.8 line and 73.3% under hit rate. The -1.1 differential provides a meaningful edge, though the moderate confidence reflects potential for positive regression. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5 or higher for maximum value extraction.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is TJ Friedl's Total Bases prop record away games?
TJ Friedl's total bases prop in away games shows an 8-22-0 record, hitting the over just 26.7% of the time across 30 games from June 2023 through September 2024, creating a strong under trend.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on TJ Friedl Total Bases away games?
Bet under on TJ Friedl's total bases in away games. His 1.67 average falls well short of typical 2.8 lines, with unders hitting 73.3% of the time and generating +40.0% ROI for consistent value.
What's TJ Friedl's average Total Bases away games?
TJ Friedl averages 1.67 total bases in away games, creating a -1.1 differential below the standard 2.8 line. This significant gap explains why unders have dominated with a 22-8-0 record over 30 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target TJ Friedl's total bases unders when the line is 2.5 or higher in away games. His consistent road struggles and 1.67 average provide the best value against inflated lines in unfamiliar ballparks.