TJ Friedl's home run prop in away games presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, going under at a staggering 77.4% rate (24-7 record). His 0.23 average sits well below the typical 0.5 line, generating massive 47.8% ROI on unders. This is a strong fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
TJ Friedl's road home run struggles stem from multiple converging factors that create a sustainable edge. His 0.23 average in away games represents a massive 54% gap below the standard 0.5 line, indicating books haven't properly adjusted for his road power deficiency. The 22.6% over rate across 31 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the 47.8% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability. Friedl's profile as a contact-oriented center fielder naturally limits his power ceiling, and road environments typically suppress offensive numbers through unfamiliar ballparks, altered sight lines, and hostile crowds. His longest under streak of six games shows the trend's persistence, while only managing two consecutive overs suggests limited hot streak potential. The consistency of this pattern across multiple seasons indicates a skill-based rather than variance-driven phenomenon. Road ballparks often feature different dimensions and wind patterns that can neutralize gap power, particularly relevant for a player like Friedl whose home runs often come from well-struck balls rather than pure power. The 56.9% negative ROI on overs reinforces that betting against Friedl's road power has been consistently profitable, with books seemingly slow to adjust their lines to reflect his clear home/road power split.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Friedl's 77.4% under rate in away games represents one of baseball's most reliable prop trends, supported by a significant skill gap rather than random variance. The 0.27-run differential below the line creates immediate value on every road game. Target this prop when the line sits at 0.5, as books consistently overprice his road power potential. Main risk is a random hot streak, but his six-game under streak shows trend persistence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is TJ Friedl's Home Runs prop record away games?
TJ Friedl's home run prop record in away games is 7-24-0 over/under, meaning the under has hit 77.4% of the time across 31 games. This represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in baseball.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on TJ Friedl Home Runs away games?
Bet under on TJ Friedl's home runs in away games with high confidence. The 77.4% under rate and 47.8% ROI provide strong mathematical support, while his 0.23 average sits well below typical 0.5 lines.
What's TJ Friedl's average Home Runs away games?
TJ Friedl averages 0.23 home runs per away game, which is 0.27 runs below the standard 0.5 line. This 54% gap creates immediate value on under bets in road games.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet TJ Friedl home run unders when the Reds play away games, particularly when the line is set at 0.5. Target road series in pitcher-friendly ballparks for maximum edge.