TJ Friedl's home run props present one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, with just 9 overs in 52 games (17.3% hit rate) and a brutal -67.0% ROI on overs. His 0.19 home run average sits 62% below the standard 0.5 line, making the under a premium play.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about TJ Friedl's power profile that sportsbooks have been slow to adjust to. Averaging 0.19 home runs per game against a consistent 0.5 line creates a massive 0.31 differential that has persisted across 52 games spanning multiple seasons. This isn't a small sample fluke - it's a fundamental mismatch between Friedl's contact-oriented skill set and inflated power expectations. His current 12-game under streak and overall 5-game active streak highlight how rarely he clears the fence. The 57.9% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, as books continue pricing him like a power threat when he's actually a speed-and-contact player. Friedl's profile suggests gap-to-gap doubles power rather than over-the-fence pop, making these props particularly exploitable. The consistency of this trend across different opponents, ballparks, and situations indicates this is baked into his approach rather than circumstantial. Without significant swing changes or a dramatic shift in his launch angle profile, expecting sudden power surges defies both the data and his established hitting philosophy.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. TJ Friedl's home run props represent exceptional value with an 82.7% under hit rate and massive +57.9% ROI. His contact-oriented approach and consistent sub-0.2 home run average create a sustainable edge against the standard 0.5 line. The ideal conditions are simply when this prop is available - the trend has shown remarkable persistence across all situations, making it a cornerstone under play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is TJ Friedl's Home Runs prop record all games?
TJ Friedl's home run prop record shows 9 overs and 43 unders across 52 games, translating to just a 17.3% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on TJ Friedl Home Runs all games?
Bet under on TJ Friedl's home run props with high confidence. The 82.7% under hit rate and +57.9% ROI make this one of the strongest trend plays available in baseball betting.
What's TJ Friedl's average Home Runs all games?
TJ Friedl averages 0.19 home runs per game, sitting 62% below the typical 0.5 line. This creates a massive -0.31 differential that has consistently favored under bettors across 52 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet TJ Friedl home run unders whenever available - the trend shows remarkable consistency across all conditions. His contact-oriented profile makes this prop exploitable regardless of opponent, ballpark, or recent form.