TJ Friedl's hits prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, going under in 76.2% of games (16-5-0 record) with a massive -0.6 differential from the typical 1.31 line. The Reds outfielder averages just 0.76 hits per home game, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
TJ Friedl's home hitting struggles represent one of the most reliable prop trends in baseball, with the under cashing in over three-quarters of his Great American Ball Park appearances. The -0.6 differential between his 0.76 average and the standard 1.31 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his home park deficiencies. This isn't a small sample fluke — across 21 games spanning over a year, Friedl consistently fails to reach even modest hit totals at home. The trend shows remarkable persistence, including a seven-game under streak that demonstrates the depth of his home struggles. Great American Ball Park's dimensions don't particularly favor or hurt contact hitters, suggesting this is more about Friedl's specific comfort level and approach in familiar surroundings. The 23.8% over rate indicates books are slow to adjust, likely influenced by his road performance or overall season numbers. With limited offensive upside and a clear pattern of underperforming expectations at home, regression seems unlikely given the sample size and consistency. The -54.5% ROI on overs tells the story — betting against Friedl's home hitting has been profitable, while chasing the over has been costly. This represents a fundamental mismatch between perception and reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. TJ Friedl's home hits prop offers exceptional value with a 76.2% under rate and consistent -0.6 line differential. The trend spans sufficient games to indicate a real edge rather than variance. Target this when the line sits at 1.0 or higher, as Friedl's 0.76 home average creates natural value. Primary risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but the seven-game under streak suggests sustainable struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is TJ Friedl's Hits prop record home games?
TJ Friedl's hits prop record in home games is 5-16-0 over/under, meaning the under has hit in 16 of 21 games (76.2%). He's averaging just 0.76 hits per home game against lines typically set around 1.31.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on TJ Friedl Hits home games?
Bet the UNDER on TJ Friedl's hits props in home games. The 76.2% under rate and -0.6 differential from the line creates strong value. This trend has been consistent across 21 games spanning over a year.
What's TJ Friedl's average Hits home games?
TJ Friedl averages 0.76 hits per home game, significantly below the typical 1.31 line set by sportsbooks. This -0.6 differential has created consistent value for under bettors across his 21 tracked home appearances.
How reliable is this trend?
Target TJ Friedl hits unders when he's playing at Great American Ball Park with lines at 1.0 or higher. The edge is strongest during his current form, having hit the under in his last two home games.