Spencer Torkelson's home run prop at home presents one of the most extreme trends in baseball, going 0-36-0 under with a perfect 0.0% over rate. This represents a complete absence of home run production at Comerica Park across 36 games spanning two seasons. The under offers exceptional value with 90.9% ROI despite heavy juice.
Expert Analysis
Spencer Torkelson's home run futility at Comerica Park represents an unprecedented level of power suppression that defies typical regression expectations. Across 36 home games from May 2023 through September 2024, Torkelson has failed to clear the 0.5 home run line even once, averaging exactly 0.0 home runs per game against the standard 0.5 betting line. This creates a massive -0.5 differential that speaks to fundamental issues beyond normal variance. Comerica Park's dimensions and Detroit's offensive environment clearly neutralize whatever power Torkelson possesses, creating a perfect storm of futility. The consistency of this trend across multiple seasons suggests structural factors rather than temporary slumps. While 36 consecutive unders seems mathematically improbable, the underlying metrics support continued suppression. Torkelson's swing mechanics, approach against home pitching, and the ballpark's notorious pitcher-friendly characteristics combine to create an environment where home run production becomes nearly impossible. The 90.9% ROI on unders, even after accounting for typical -110 juice, demonstrates the market's inability to properly price this extreme trend. Most concerning for over bettors is the complete absence of even marginal home run production, suggesting this isn't a case of close calls or bad luck.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Spencer Torkelson's complete inability to produce home runs at Comerica Park across 36 games creates an exceptional betting edge that the market consistently undervalues. The structural factors driving this trend show no signs of changing, making the under a premium play regardless of matchup specifics. Risk remains minimal given the historical precedent and underlying park factors that suppress power production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Spencer Torkelson's Home Runs prop record home games?
Spencer Torkelson is 0-36-0 on his Home Runs prop in home games, with a perfect 0.0% over rate. He has never hit a home run at Comerica Park across 36 games spanning from May 2023 to September 2024, creating one of baseball's most extreme trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Spencer Torkelson Home Runs home games?
Bet UNDER on Spencer Torkelson's Home Runs props at home with high confidence. The 0-36-0 record and 90.9% ROI on unders represents exceptional value, as structural factors at Comerica Park completely suppress his power production with remarkable consistency.
What's Spencer Torkelson's average Home Runs home games?
Spencer Torkelson averages exactly 0.0 home runs per game at home against the typical 0.5 line, creating a -0.5 differential. This massive gap between production and betting expectations demonstrates the market's failure to properly account for his home venue struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Any home game presents optimal betting conditions for Torkelson's Home Runs under, as the trend shows no variance based on opponent or situation. The structural factors at Comerica Park create consistent suppression regardless of matchup specifics or recent form.