Spencer Steer's home run prop at home presents one of the most reliable under plays in baseball, hitting just 6.2% overs across 48 games with a devastating -88.1% ROI on overs. Steer averages only 0.06 home runs per home game against a typical 0.5 line, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Spencer Steer's home ballpark presents a perfect storm for home run suppression that creates exceptional betting value. His microscopic 0.06 home runs per game at Great American Ball Park represents an extreme outlier that suggests environmental factors beyond normal variance. The 21-game under streak within this sample indicates systematic issues rather than random cold streaks. Great American Ball Park's dimensions and wind patterns likely contribute significantly, as does Steer's swing mechanics potentially being ill-suited for his home environment. The 0.46-run differential between his actual production and typical betting lines creates massive value, with books apparently slow to adjust to this pronounced home/road split. While regression is always possible, the sample size of 48 games provides substantial confidence in the underlying pattern. The consistency is remarkable - Steer has managed just three home run overs in nearly a full season's worth of home games. This level of suppression suggests fundamental mechanical or environmental factors rather than temporary slumps. The +79.0% ROI on unders demonstrates how profitable this edge has been, though bettors should monitor for any line adjustments as books catch up to this trend.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Spencer Steer's home run under at home games represents elite betting value with a proven 21-game under streak and 94% hit rate. The ideal conditions are any home game where the line sits at 0.5, maximizing the 0.46-run edge. The primary risk is eventual regression, but the environmental factors suggest this trend has staying power through 2024.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Spencer Steer's Home Runs prop record home games?
Spencer Steer has gone 3-45-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 6.2% of overs across 48 games from June 2023 through September 2024. He's averaging only 0.06 home runs per home game against typical 0.5 lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Spencer Steer Home Runs home games?
Bet UNDER on Spencer Steer's home runs in home games. The 94% under hit rate and +79.0% ROI make this one of the most reliable props in baseball, with environmental factors creating sustainable value.
What's Spencer Steer's average Home Runs home games?
Spencer Steer averages 0.06 home runs per home game, creating a massive 0.46-run gap below the typical 0.5 betting line. This differential represents exceptional value for under bettors in home games.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Spencer Steer home run unders in any home game, especially when lines are set at 0.5. The Great American Ball Park environment consistently suppresses his power, making every home game an optimal betting spot.