Spencer Steer's hits prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 33.3% overs across 105 games. His 0.8 average falls significantly short of the typical 1.33 line, creating a massive -0.5 differential that has generated +27.3% ROI betting unders.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Spencer Steer's offensive limitations. Averaging just 0.8 hits per game against lines consistently set around 1.33, Steer has managed to exceed his prop in only 35 of 105 games tracked. This isn't a small sample quirk—it's a sustained pattern across nearly two full seasons that reflects his true talent level. The -36.4% ROI for overs demonstrates how consistently the market has overvalued his hit-getting ability. Steer's profile suggests a player who makes contact but lacks the consistent barrel skills to string together multi-hit games regularly. His longest over streak reached just eight games, while his longest under streak extended to nine, indicating the market occasionally overcorrects but quickly reverts to overestimating his production. The persistence of this trend across such an extensive sample suggests fundamental skill limitations rather than temporary slumps. Books appear slow to adjust their lines downward, creating ongoing value on unders. Without splits data showing specific vulnerable spots, the edge appears consistent across all game situations, making this a reliable fade opportunity whenever Steer's hits line approaches or exceeds 1.5.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Spencer Steer's 0.8 hits per game average creates substantial value against standard 1.33+ lines, supported by an impressive +27.3% under ROI across 105 games. The 33.3% over rate indicates books consistently overvalue his hit-getting ability. Target unders when lines sit at 1.5 or higher, though even 1.0 lines offer value given his sub-0.8 production. Main risk is positive regression, but the sample size suggests this reflects true talent level rather than extended bad luck.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Spencer Steer's Hits prop record all games?
Spencer Steer has gone over his hits prop in just 35 of 105 games (33.3% rate) from June 2023 through September 2024. This 35-70 over/under record demonstrates consistent underperformance against market expectations across nearly two full seasons of data.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Spencer Steer Hits all games?
Bet UNDER on Spencer Steer's hits props with high confidence. His 0.8 average significantly trails typical 1.33 lines, generating +27.3% under ROI. The 33.3% over rate across 105 games shows books consistently overvalue his hitting ability, creating reliable fade opportunities.
What's Spencer Steer's average Hits all games?
Spencer Steer averages 0.8 hits per game, which falls 0.5 hits short of the typical 1.33 betting line. This substantial negative differential of -0.5 hits represents the core edge, as books consistently set lines well above his actual production level.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Spencer Steer hits unders whenever lines reach 1.5 or higher for maximum value. Even 1.0 lines offer profit potential given his sub-0.8 average. Without situational splits available, the edge appears consistent across all game types and conditions throughout the season.