Sonny Gray has delivered exceptional strikeout value over his last 10 starts, posting an 8-2 over record with a massive +52.7% ROI. Gray is averaging 7.1 strikeouts against a typical 6.1 line, creating a consistent one-strikeout edge that's currently riding a seven-game over streak.
Expert Analysis
Gray's strikeout surge reflects a pitcher hitting his stride in the Cardinals rotation, combining excellent command with a diverse arsenal that keeps hitters off balance. The 80% over rate isn't just lucky variance—it represents a fundamental shift in Gray's approach and effectiveness. His ability to consistently exceed the 6.1 line by a full strikeout suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current form. The seven-game over streak indicates sustainable performance rather than random hot streaks, as Gray has maintained this level across different opponents and situations. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—only two unders in 10 starts shows remarkable reliability. The +1.0 average differential provides meaningful cushion, meaning Gray doesn't need dominant outings to cash overs. However, regression risk looms as this pace seems unsustainable long-term. The Cardinals' improved defense behind Gray allows him to attack the zone more aggressively, leading to more swing-and-miss opportunities. His veteran experience helps him adjust within games, often finding extra strikeouts in middle innings when hitters make adjustments. The main concern is workload management as the season progresses, but Gray's current form suggests the strikeout prop overs remain profitable.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gray's 80% over rate and +1.0 differential above typical lines create clear betting value, especially with his seven-game over streak showing no signs of slowing. The ideal spots are when lines remain around 6.1, giving Gray's current 7.1 average plenty of room to work. Main risk is regression to career norms, but his current form and approach suggest continued strikeout success in favorable matchups.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-12 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Sonny Gray's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Gray has gone 8-2 on strikeout overs in his last 10 games with an impressive 80% hit rate. He's averaging 7.1 strikeouts per start against typical lines around 6.1, creating a consistent +1.0 differential that's generated exceptional betting value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Sonny Gray Strikeouts last 10 games?
Bet the over on Gray's strikeout props with medium confidence. His 80% over rate and seven-game over streak show sustainable performance above market expectations. The +52.7% ROI on overs indicates clear value, especially when lines stay around 6.1.
What's Sonny Gray's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Gray is averaging 7.1 strikeouts over his last 10 starts, which sits a full strikeout above the typical 6.1 line. This +1.0 differential provides meaningful cushion for over bettors and explains the exceptional 80% over rate during this stretch.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gray strikeout overs when lines remain around 6.1 or lower, giving his 7.1 average maximum room to work. Avoid when lines inflate above 6.5, as the cushion disappears and regression risk increases significantly.