Shota Imanaga's strikeout props present a compelling over opportunity, hitting the over in 14 of 22 games (63.6%) with a healthy +0.4 differential above the typical 5.82 line. The Cubs southpaw's 6.23 average strikeouts and strong +21.5% ROI on overs signals consistent value in backing his punchout upside.
Expert Analysis
Imanaga's strikeout consistency stems from his elite command and deceptive four-pitch mix that consistently generates swings and misses at the major league level. The Japanese import's 6.23 strikeout average significantly outpacing his 5.82 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his MLB transition success. His 63.6% over rate across 22 starts demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only two extended cold streaks of consecutive unders. The +21.5% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has recognized this edge, yet the line hasn't corrected proportionally. Imanaga's ability to maintain strikeout production regardless of game script makes him less volatile than power pitchers who rely on favorable matchups. The current one-game under streak represents typical variance rather than concerning regression, especially given his longest under streak maxed at just two games. His four-game over streak earlier this season showcased his ceiling when locked in. The lack of significant platoon or situational splits suggests his strikeout production remains stable across various contexts, making the over a reliable play regardless of opponent or circumstances.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Imanaga's 63.6% over rate and +0.4 differential above the line creates consistent value, though not overwhelming enough for maximum conviction. The Cubs starter's proven ability to generate strikeouts against MLB hitters makes him a reliable over play when the line sits at his typical 5.82 mark. Primary risk involves potential workload management as the season progresses, but his strikeout consistency outweighs regression concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 6.5 | 11.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shota Imanaga's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Imanaga holds a 14-8-0 record on strikeout overs across 22 games, hitting 63.6% of his overs with an impressive +21.5% ROI. His consistency in exceeding the line makes him one of the more reliable strikeout props available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shota Imanaga Strikeouts all games?
Bet the over on Imanaga's strikeouts. His 6.23 average significantly exceeds the typical 5.82 line, creating a +0.4 edge with 63.6% over rate. The data strongly supports backing his strikeout upside in most situations.
What's Shota Imanaga's average Strikeouts all games?
Imanaga averages 6.23 strikeouts per game, which sits 0.4 above his typical 5.82 line. This differential represents meaningful value, as he consistently outperforms oddsmaker expectations by a quantifiable margin that translates to profitable betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Imanaga strikeout overs when the line sits at 5.5 or 6.0, his most common numbers. His consistency across all contexts means situational spots matter less than line value, making him a reliable play regardless of opponent or game circumstances.