Shohei Ohtani's total bases prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, going under in 60% of his last 10 games with a -23.6% ROI on overs versus +14.6% on unders. His 3.2 average sits just 0.1 bases below the typical 3.3 line, creating consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Ohtani's recent total bases production falling short of market expectations. His 40% over rate across 10 games represents a significant deviation from what books are pricing in, particularly given his superstar status typically inflates public betting on overs. The -0.1 differential between his actual average and the line appears minimal but becomes meaningful when consistently repeated. This trend likely stems from late-season fatigue affecting his power output, as September often sees declining slugging percentages even for elite hitters managing heavy workloads. The current one-game under streak follows his longest under streak of three games, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to his recent form. What makes this particularly exploitable is the public's tendency to overbet Ohtani props based on name recognition rather than recent performance data. However, regression risk exists given his elite talent level and ability to explode for big games. The lack of meaningful split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but the consistent underperformance against the number suggests books are still pricing in peak Ohtani rather than his current form.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with his consistent underperformance creates legitimate value, though Ohtani's explosive upside prevents a stronger conviction play. Target this prop when he faces quality pitching or in day games following night games, as fatigue factors compound his recent struggles. The main risk remains his ability to single-handedly destroy any under bet with one swing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 17.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shohei Ohtani's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Ohtani has gone 4-6-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. His 3.2 average falls 0.1 bases short of the typical 3.3 line, creating consistent value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shohei Ohtani Total Bases last 10 games?
Lean under on Ohtani's total bases props based on his recent 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI. The market hasn't adjusted to his late-season form, though his explosive potential keeps this from being a max play.
What's Shohei Ohtani's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Ohtani is averaging 3.2 total bases over his last 10 games, sitting 0.1 bases below the standard 3.3 line. This small but consistent gap has created profitable opportunities for under bettors throughout this sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ohtani total bases unders against quality starting pitching and in day games following night games. Late-season fatigue factors make these spots ideal, while avoiding weekend primetime games where his motivation peaks.