Shohei Ohtani's home run props present a compelling under opportunity with just 31.8% overs hitting across 88 games in 2024. His 0.36 average sits significantly below the typical 0.52 line, creating a -0.2 differential that has generated +30.2% ROI on unders. This represents one of the season's most reliable power-hitting fades.
Expert Analysis
The mathematics behind Ohtani's home run props tell a clear story of market overadjustment. His 0.36 home runs per game average consistently trails the 0.52 line by a meaningful 0.16 margin, suggesting books are pricing in peak Ohtani rather than his actual 2024 production. This isn't simply regression from his MVP campaigns - it reflects the reality of his transition to full-time designated hitter duties while managing his return from elbow surgery. The 28-60 over-under record demonstrates remarkable consistency in falling short, with an eight-game under streak highlighting just how difficult it has become for Ohtani to clear these elevated numbers. His longest over streak of just three games shows that even hot stretches are brief and unsustainable. The -39.3% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, yet books continue setting lines that favor under bettors. Most telling is the persistence of this pattern across 88 games - this isn't small sample noise but a fundamental shift in Ohtani's power output that the market hasn't fully recognized.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 31.8% over rate combined with Ohtani's consistent 0.16 shortfall versus the line creates a mathematically sound edge that has persisted across nearly a full season. Target this prop when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, as his 0.36 average makes these numbers increasingly difficult to reach. The primary risk is a prolonged hot streak, but his longest over run of three games suggests such stretches are manageable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Shohei Ohtani's Home Runs prop record all games?
Ohtani's home run props show a 28-60-0 over-under record across 88 games in 2024, with overs hitting just 31.8% of the time. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records for any star player this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Shohei Ohtani Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Ohtani's home run props with high confidence. His 0.36 average consistently falls short of typical 0.52 lines, generating +30.2% ROI on unders. The 60-28 under record across 88 games shows remarkable consistency.
What's Shohei Ohtani's average Home Runs all games?
Ohtani averages 0.36 home runs per game in 2024, significantly below the typical 0.52 line. This -0.16 differential has created consistent value on under bets, with his actual production trailing market expectations by 30.8%.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ohtani home run unders when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, as his 0.36 average makes these increasingly difficult to reach. Avoid after multi-game hot streaks, though his longest over run was just three games.