Salvador Perez's total bases props present a massive under opportunity with just 25.2% overs across 119 games. His 1.34 average sits a full run below the 2.31 line, generating +42.8% ROI on unders. This is a premium fade candidate with exceptional consistency.
Expert Analysis
Salvador Perez's total bases props reveal one of the most exploitable edges in baseball betting, with books consistently overvaluing his offensive output. The veteran catcher's 1.34 average against a 2.31 line represents nearly a full base of value per game, suggesting oddsmakers haven't adjusted to his declining power production. This isn't a small sample anomaly—119 games provide robust evidence of a persistent market inefficiency. Perez's current 11-game under streak exemplifies the reliability of this trend, with his longest over streak reaching just two games. The -51.9% ROI on overs warns against any contrarian thinking, while the +42.8% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability. Age-related decline appears to be the primary driver, as Perez's power numbers have deteriorated while books remain anchored to his historical production. The lack of meaningful regression over this extended sample suggests the market correction remains incomplete. Catchers typically experience faster physical decline due to positional demands, making this trend particularly sustainable. The extreme consistency—only one in four games going over—indicates this isn't matchup dependent but rather reflects Perez's current offensive ceiling.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Salvador Perez's total bases under represents elite value with 75% hit rate and +42.8% ROI over 119 games. The 1.34 average versus 2.31 line gap is too significant to ignore, especially with his current 11-game under streak demonstrating trend persistence. Main risk is potential lineup changes or rest affecting sample quality, but this edge appears sustainable given age-related decline factors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Salvador Perez's Total Bases prop record all games?
Salvador Perez has gone under his total bases prop in 89 of 119 games (74.8%) with an average of 1.34 total bases against a typical 2.31 line, creating a -0.97 differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Salvador Perez Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Salvador Perez's total bases props with high confidence. The 75% under rate and +42.8% ROI over 119 games represents one of baseball's most reliable prop edges currently available.
What's Salvador Perez's average Total Bases all games?
Salvador Perez averages 1.34 total bases per game, nearly a full base below the typical 2.31 line. This -0.97 differential represents significant value on under bets across his 119-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Salvador Perez total bases unders consistently regardless of matchup, as the trend shows no split-dependent variance. His age-related decline makes this a season-long edge rather than situational opportunity.